Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1550000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1525000
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
Above 1500000
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$668
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1
Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1500000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026?: Above 1500000
KXAMZNA-28JANHEAD-1500000
Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1525000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026?: Above 1525000
KXAMZNA-28JANHEAD-1525000
Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1575000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026?: Above 1575000
KXAMZNA-28JANHEAD-1575000
Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1600000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026?: Above 1600000
KXAMZNA-28JANHEAD-1600000
Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1550000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026?: Above 1550000
KXAMZNA-28JANHEAD-1550000
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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