Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Oct 1, 2026
Leader sits at 8% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Before Nov 1, 2026
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before
Analysis
Markets are currently pricing a 13% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will be arrested before January 1, 2027, with lower probabilities assigned to earlier deadlines (6% for October 1, 11% for November 1). This reflects uncertainty around whether Israeli or international legal proceedings will result in formal arrest within the specified timeframe. The current probability is driven by ongoing legal cases in Israel, where Netanyahu faces indictment on corruption charges, alongside the possibility of international warrants. Key catalysts include court rulings in Israeli proceedings, decisions by the International Criminal Court regarding arrest warrants, and political developments in Israel that could affect prosecution priorities. The market assigns notably lower probability to arrest by October 1—just two and a half months away—suggesting most traders view arrest as more likely in late 2026 or beyond, if at all.
- ›Netanyahu remains formally indicted in Israeli court on bribery and fraud charges with trial ongoing; conviction timeline and sentencing are uncertain
- ›International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu; enforcement depends on his travel to signatory countries and diplomatic cooperation
- ›Israeli law and political conditions currently make domestic arrest prosecution unlikely absent significant legal or political shifts
- ›Market assigns 6% probability to arrest by October 1, 2026 versus 13% by January 1, 2027, indicating traders expect most risk is concentrated in the final quarter
- ›Trading volume on these contracts remains relatively modest ($922–$1,317 in 24h volume), limiting predictive confidence of the probability estimates
What moved the line
- Jul 21Before Nov 1, 2026↓5pp12→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp14→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (8% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.