SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·2 source contracts·Kalshi 2·refreshed just now·Closes Jun 22, 2026 · 1d

Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026

Leader sits at 94% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

94%

6

runner-up 4¢leader 94¢

Outcomes

2

winner-take-all

Runner-up

5

Spread

90pp

dominant leader

24h volume

$2K

modest

Closes

Jun 22, 2026

1 days

Venue

Kalshi

2 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday6: 93% (7 days, 7 points)6: 93% on 2026-06-215: 4% (7 days, 7 points)5: 4% on 2026-06-21
693¢54¢
Top 2 candidates by current price · 7d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This contract predicts whether Trump will appear in Getty Images editorial photos on exactly 7 distinct days during the week of June 15-21, 2026. Currently priced at 8 cents, this outcome is considered unlikely compared to the market leader (exactly 4 days at 31 cents). The distribution suggests traders expect below-average media coverage for Trump during this period. Key drivers include Trump's scheduled public appearances, news events commanding editorial photography attention, and Getty's editorial assignment decisions. The exact-day structure makes rare occurrences like this inherently low-probability—achieving seven distinct days requires consistent daily newsworthiness and Getty photographer presence. Resolution occurs automatically on June 22, 2026, when Getty's editorial database can be analyzed. Market pricing reflects skepticism that Trump will generate sufficient editorial photography volume across every day of the week.

  • Getty Images editorial photos require active newsworthiness and photographer assignment decisions, not just Trump's physical presence at events
  • The exact-7-days outcome requires maximum coverage consistency across a 7-day window; any single day without Getty editorial coverage eliminates this contract
  • Market pricing heavily favors exactly 4 days (31%) over 7 days (8%), suggesting consensus expectation of moderate rather than saturated editorial coverage
  • External news events and competing stories during June 15-21 will influence Getty's editorial assignment priorities and photo volume
  • Contract resolves definitively on June 22, 2026, when Getty's database becomes final reference for distinct coverage days

What moved the line

  • Jun 19622pp4163¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 20620pp6383¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 16618pp2139¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 19515pp2712¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 21610pp8393¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in trump

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (94% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.