Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.1% or above
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
4.15% or above
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 17, 2026
1 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.09% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.1% or above
KXUST5A-26JUL17-T4.09
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.35% or above
KXUST5A-26JUL17-T4.34
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.3% or above
KXUST5A-26JUL17-T4.29
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.25% or above
KXUST5A-26JUL17-T4.24
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.2% or above
KXUST5A-26JUL17-T4.19
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.15% or above
KXUST5A-26JUL17-T4.14
Analysis
This market assesses whether the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield will close above 4.04% on July 17, 2026—tomorrow. The 97% probability reflects near-certainty that yields will remain above this threshold. Treasury yields are driven primarily by Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation dynamics; a significant downward move would require either unexpected economic weakness, a shift toward rate cuts, or deflationary signals. The immediate resolution tomorrow means the outcome depends almost entirely on overnight market movements and any pre-market data releases. With 24-hour trading volume at zero and contracts widely clustered above 94 cents, traders show strong consensus that the 4.04% level will hold, though the contract ladder reveals diminishing conviction at higher yield thresholds—96 cents for 4.05% versus 56 cents for 4.25%.
- ›Current 5Y yield is priced above 4.04% with only one trading day remaining before resolution, leaving minimal time for large directional shifts
- ›Volume is zero across all contracts in the past 24 hours, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potential illiquidity if positions need to be adjusted
- ›The contract price ladder shows declining probability for progressively higher yields (97% for 4.05%, 56% for 4.25%), indicating asymmetric risk above current levels
- ›No scheduled major economic data releases or Fed communications are typically expected on the final trading day before resolution
- ›The gap between the leader (97%) and runner-up (96%) is one percentage point, reflecting minimal market disagreement on the core outcome
Recently closed in fed rate
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 19% · 0d
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 42% · 1d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 10d
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026last 97% · 10d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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