Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before May 15, 2026
Leader sits at 27% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 3, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Before Aug 1, 2026
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$5
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
132 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before
Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before Nov 3, 2026?: Before Nov 3, 2026
KXMILLSPLATNER-26NOV03-NOV03
Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXMILLSPLATNER-26NOV03-AUG01
Analysis
This market assesses the likelihood that Maine Governor Janet Mills will endorse Graham Platner in the 2026 U.S. Senate race before November 3, 2026. Currently priced at 36%, the probability reflects uncertainty about whether Mills will publicly back Platner during the general election campaign. The timing ladder suggests market participants view an endorsement as more likely later in the cycle—closer to the general election—rather than immediately, with near-term probabilities substantially lower. Key drivers include Mills's historical relationship with Platner, the Democratic primary outcome (if applicable), and broader state party dynamics. The main catalyst will be direct statements from Mills or her office, with resolution occurring either upon a public endorsement or the November election passing without one.
- ›Mills's prior working relationship with Platner and her previous public comments about him
- ›The outcome and timing of Maine's Democratic primary process and whether Platner emerges as the party-endorsed nominee
- ›Competitive positioning of the general election race and whether Mills views an endorsement as strategically beneficial
- ›Historical patterns of Maine gubernatorial endorsements in Senate races and typical timing of such announcements
- ›Any public statements or reported private signals from Mills's office about her intention to endorse in this race
What moved the line
- Jun 19Before Aug 1, 2026↓6pp15→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Before Nov 3, 2026↓4pp31→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (27% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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