Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026
Leader sits at 82% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 70%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 12 million
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
70¢
Above 14 million
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$214
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 20, 2026
27 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above
Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 12 million
KXDNCCASH-26JUN30-A12000000
Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 18000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 18 million
KXDNCCASH-26JUN30-A18000000
Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 20000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 20 million
KXDNCCASH-26JUN30-A20000000
Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 14000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 14 million
KXDNCCASH-26JUN30-A14000000
Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 16000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 16 million
KXDNCCASH-26JUN30-A16000000
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that the Democratic National Committee will hold more than $12 million in cash reserves by June 30, 2026. The 81% confidence suggests market participants expect the DNC to maintain a substantial war chest heading into the 2026 midterm campaign cycle. Key drivers include the pace of fundraising relative to spending on operations, campaign infrastructure, and ongoing political activities. The DNC's cash position fluctuates based on donation cycles, major donor events, and whether party resources are being deployed for special elections or candidate support. The June 30 deadline coincides with mid-year financial reporting requirements, providing concrete public data to resolve this question. The spread between the $12 million threshold (81%) and higher benchmarks—$14 million at 70% and $20 million at 25%—suggests traders view substantial reserves as likely but significant growth as less certain.
- ›DNC fundraising performance in Q1 and Q2 2026 relative to their spending commitments and operational budget
- ›Whether the party makes major expenditures for special elections, candidate recruitment, or midterm preparation before June 30
- ›Historical DNC cash-on-hand patterns during non-presidential election years and their typical reserve levels
- ›Donor sentiment and contribution velocity, which tend to correlate with political momentum and election cycle timing
- ›Official FEC filings due June 30 will provide the definitive cash-on-hand figure, leaving minimal ambiguity in resolution
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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