Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.25% or above
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
4.3% or above
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 17, 2026
1 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.25% or above
KXUST7A-26JUL17-T4.24
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.6% or above
KXUST7A-26JUL17-T4.59
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.55% or above
KXUST7A-26JUL17-T4.54
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.5% or above
KXUST7A-26JUL17-T4.49
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.45% or above
KXUST7A-26JUL17-T4.44
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.4% or above
KXUST7A-26JUL17-T4.39
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.35% or above
KXUST7A-26JUL17-T4.34
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 17, 2026?: 4.3% or above
KXUST7A-26JUL17-T4.29
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 96% chance that the 7-year U.S. Treasury yield closes at or above 4.25% on July 17, 2026—essentially tomorrow from the current date. The probability reflects strong consensus that yields will remain in a narrow band above this threshold. Treasury yields are driven by expectations around inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and broader economic growth. The main factors supporting higher yields include persistent inflation concerns or expectations of sustained higher interest rates, while a flight-to-safety bid or shift in inflation expectations could push yields lower. The resolution occurs at market close tomorrow, so the primary catalyst is intraday trading activity and any final economic data or Fed commentary released before then. The contract ladder shows declining conviction at higher yield levels, with only 22% probability assigned to yields exceeding 4.45%.
- ›Current market price implies 96% odds of closing above 4.25%, leaving only 4% probability of a sub-4.25% close
- ›The 7Y yield has remained structurally above 4.24% with sufficient stability that nearly all derivatives traders are positioned for that outcome to persist
- ›Liquidity in the underlying Treasury market on July 17 will determine actual execution; zero 24-hour volume across these contracts suggests minimal recent price discovery
- ›The probability gradient (96% → 91% → 74% as thresholds rise) indicates traders assign meaningful but declining odds to yields reaching 4.30%, 4.35%, or higher
- ›With resolution occurring within hours, overnight futures trading and opening U.S. market action will be the primary mechanism to resolve this contract
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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