Will any player record 6+ passing touchdowns in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Leader sits at 20% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Any player to record 2+ defensive interceptions in a game
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Any player to record 6+ pass
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 18, 2027
162 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any player record
Will any player record 225+ rushing yards in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 225+ rushing yards in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-225RY
Will any player record 275+ rushing yards in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 275+ rushing yards in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-RY275
Will any player record 250+ rushing yards in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 250+ rushing yards in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-RY250
Will any player record 100+ rushing yards and 100+ receiving yards in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 100+ rushing yards and 100+ receiving yards in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-RY100REY100
Will any player record 20+ receptions in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 20+ receptions in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-REC20
Will any player record 17+ receptions in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 17+ receptions in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-REC17
Will any player record 15+ receptions in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 15+ receptions in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-REC15
Will any player record 300+ receiving yards in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 300+ receiving yards in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-RCY300
Will any player record 275+ receiving yards in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 275+ receiving yards in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-RCY275
Will any player record 250+ receiving yards in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 250+ receiving yards in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-RCY250
Will any player record 150+ rushing yards in a single quarter in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 150+ rushing yards in a single quarter
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-QRY150
Will any player record 150+ receiving yards in a single quarter in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 150+ receiving yards in a single quarter
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-QREY150
Will any player record 250+ passing yards in a single quarter in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 250+ passing yards in a single quarter
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-QPY250
Will any player record 525+ passing yards in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 525+ passing yards in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-PY525
Will any player record 500+ passing yards in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 500+ passing yards in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-PY500
Will any player record 475+ passing yards in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 475+ passing yards in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-PY475
Will any player record 6+ passing touchdowns in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 6+ passing touchdowns in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-PTD6
Will any player record 2+ defensive/special teams touchdowns in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 2+ defensive/special teams touchdowns in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-DSTTD2
Will any player record 3+ defensive interceptions in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 3+ defensive interceptions in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-DINT3
Will any player record 2+ defensive interceptions in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Any player to record 2+ defensive interceptions in a game
KXNFLGAMESPECIALS-27-DINT2
Analysis
This contract asks whether any NFL player will throw 6 or more passing touchdowns in a single game during the 2026-27 regular season, with the market currently pricing this at 11 cents, suggesting roughly an 11% probability. The low odds reflect the statistical rarity of such performances—historically, 6+ TD passing games occur in fewer than one per season across the entire league. The probability hinges on two main drivers: quarterback talent and offensive scheme evolution, particularly whether teams increasingly feature pass-heavy systems that create high-volume TD opportunities. The biggest uncertainty resolver will be the opening weeks of the 2026 season in September, when we'll observe actual game performances and whether any quarterback quickly approaches or exceeds this threshold. Any unusual rule changes favoring offense or emergence of a record-setting QB would shift expectations upward.
- ›Historical frequency: 6+ TD passing games occur roughly once per 16-team season or less often, providing a baseline for how rare this outcome is
- ›QB talent concentration: outcomes depend heavily on a small number of elite QBs with MVP-caliber arms and deep passing schemes—neither predictable in advance
- ›Offensive system design: teams that employ high-volume pass plays with four-receiver sets or no-look concepts increase the likelihood of any player hitting this mark
- ›Injury dynamics: the presence or absence of key pass-catchers and defenses facing unexpectedly weak secondaries in specific matchups can enable outlier performances
- ›Resolution timing: the contract resolves after the final regular-season game in early January 2027, creating a full 17-week observation window for the event to occur
What moved the line
- Aug 6Any player to record 2+ defensive interceptions in a game↑12pp7→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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