Will the WPG Jets NHL team earn at least 85 points in the 2026-27 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 52% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
52%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$92
20 contracts
Closes
Apr 18, 2027
209 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the WSH Capitals NHL team earn at least
Will the WSH Capitals NHL team earn at least 70 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 70+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WSH-70
Will the WSH Capitals NHL team earn at least 115 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 115+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WSH-115
Will the WSH Capitals NHL team earn at least 110 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 110+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WSH-110
Will the WSH Capitals NHL team earn at least 105 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 105+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WSH-105
Will the WSH Capitals NHL team earn at least 100 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 100+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WSH-100
Will the WSH Capitals NHL team earn at least 95 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 95+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WSH-95
Will the WSH Capitals NHL team earn at least 90 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 90+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WSH-90
Will the WSH Capitals NHL team earn at least 85 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 85+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WSH-85
Will the WSH Capitals NHL team earn at least 80 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 80+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WSH-80
Will the WSH Capitals NHL team earn at least 75 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 75+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WSH-75
Cluster 2
Will the WPG Jets NHL team earn at least
Will the WPG Jets NHL team earn at least 70 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 70+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WPG-70
Will the WPG Jets NHL team earn at least 100 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 100+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WPG-100
Will the WPG Jets NHL team earn at least 95 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 95+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WPG-95
Will the WPG Jets NHL team earn at least 90 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 90+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WPG-90
Will the WPG Jets NHL team earn at least 85 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 85+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WPG-85
Will the WPG Jets NHL team earn at least 80 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 80+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WPG-80
Will the WPG Jets NHL team earn at least 75 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 75+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27WPG-75
Cluster 3
Will the MIN Wild NHL team earn at least 10
Cluster 4
Will the NJ Devils NHL team earn at least 95 points in the 2026-27 regular season
Will the NJ Devils NHL team earn at least 95 points in the 2026-27 regular season?: 95+ points
KXNHLSEASONPTS-27NJ-95
Analysis
This probability indicates a near coin-flip assessment of whether the Winnipeg Jets will accumulate at least 85 points during the 2026-27 NHL regular season. The 49% probability reflects uncertainty about the team's competitive positioning, with the Jets historically finishing in the middle tier of the league. Key drivers of this probability include roster stability (particularly goaltending and star player health), depth scoring consistency, and divisional competition strength. The probability will likely shift based on team performance early in the season—typically by November or December, patterns emerge that either confirm or refute preseason expectations. The exact outcome resolves when the regular season concludes in April 2027, at which point the Jets' final point total will be definitively known. Market pricing suggests only slight conviction either direction, indicating substantial disagreement about their competitive trajectory.
- ›Jets' average points per season over the past three years relative to 85-point threshold
- ›Turnover in the team's roster (trades, free agency, retirements) between now and October 2026
- ›Starting goaltender performance and injury history entering 2026-27 season
- ›Strength of schedule and divisional competition (Pacific Division composition)
- ›Historical correlation between preseason expectations and actual regular-season performance for NHL teams at this point range
What moved the line
- Sep 1885+ points↑19pp21→40¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17100+ points↑8pp47→55¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19100+ points↓7pp55→48¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1895+ points↑6pp50→56¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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