SimpleFunctions
10 source contracts·Kalshi 10·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 7, 2027 · 134d

Will Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother Season 28

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 10 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

9%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

9%

10 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$37K

10 contracts

Closes

Jan 7, 2027

134 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 5% (30 days, 30 points)Aggregate: 5% on 2026-08-26
Aggregate of 10 contracts · 30d

Bracket families

10 clusters across 10 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will LaTrice Verrett win Big Brother Season 28

1 contract$12K

Cluster 2

Will Mallory Aurichio win Big Brother Season 28

1 contract$8K

Cluster 3

Will Yash Patel win Big Brother Season 28

1 contract$4K

Cluster 4

Will Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother Season 28

1 contract$2K

Cluster 5

Will Rick Devens win Big Brother Season 28

1 contract$2K

Cluster 6

Will Taylor Brown win Big Brother Season 28

1 contract$2K

Cluster 7

Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28

1 contract$2K

Cluster 8

Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother Season 28

1 contract$2K

Cluster 9

Will Angela Murray win Big Brother Season 28

1 contract$2K

Cluster 10

Will Melody Morris win Big Brother Season 28

1 contract$775

Analysis

This contract reflects a 7% probability that Barrett Pfeiffer will win Big Brother Season 28, based on aggregated trading data from prediction markets. At this odds level, Pfeiffer is positioned as a mid-tier contender rather than a frontrunner or long shot. The probability likely reflects his performance in early game phases, social positioning, and competition strength relative to other houseguests. Key factors driving this valuation include his demonstrated physical or strategic gameplay, jury management approach, and how he compares to higher-probability contestants like Ashley Trail (7%) and Lyric Medeiros (8%). Movement in this probability would depend on his survival in upcoming evictions, relationship dynamics with other houseguests, and shifts in fan or betting sentiment as the season progresses. The resolution of this market will depend on the finale timing and final houseguest standing.

  • Pfeiffer's competition performance and win-loss record in physical and mental challenges will directly impact eviction survival odds
  • His current position in house alliances and social relationships determine whether he remains a voting target or gains jury respect
  • Trading volume of $335 in 24 hours for his contract suggests moderate but not overwhelming market interest compared to top contenders
  • The 1-2 cent spread between his price (9¢) and similar contenders (Patel at 6¢, Brown at 6¢) indicates marginal differentiation in expected probability
  • Upcoming eviction episodes and jury composition changes will create focal points where market probability adjusts based on new information

What moved the line

  • Aug 22Mallory Aurichio7pp136¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 22Dee Valladares5pp1621¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 22Yash Patel3pp96¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 25Yash Patel3pp710¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 22Taylor Brown3pp85¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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