Will Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother Season 28
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$37K
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
134 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will LaTrice Verrett win Big Brother Season 28
Will LaTrice Verrett win Big Brother Season 28?: LaTrice Verrett
KXBIGBROTHER-26DEC31-LAT
Cluster 2
Will Mallory Aurichio win Big Brother Season 28
Will Mallory Aurichio win Big Brother Season 28?: Mallory Aurichio
KXBIGBROTHER-26DEC31-MAL
Cluster 3
Will Yash Patel win Big Brother Season 28
Will Yash Patel win Big Brother Season 28?: Yash Patel
KXBIGBROTHER-26DEC31-YAS
Cluster 4
Will Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother Season 28
Will Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother Season 28?: Barrett Pfeiffer
KXBIGBROTHER-26DEC31-BAR
Cluster 5
Will Rick Devens win Big Brother Season 28
Will Rick Devens win Big Brother Season 28?: Rick Devens
KXBIGBROTHER-26DEC31-RIC
Cluster 6
Will Taylor Brown win Big Brother Season 28
Will Taylor Brown win Big Brother Season 28?: Taylor Brown
KXBIGBROTHER-26DEC31-TAY
Cluster 7
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28?: Dee Valladares
KXBIGBROTHER-26DEC31-DEE
Cluster 8
Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother Season 28
Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother Season 28?: Drew Campbell
KXBIGBROTHER-26DEC31-DRE
Cluster 9
Will Angela Murray win Big Brother Season 28
Will Angela Murray win Big Brother Season 28?: Angela Murray
KXBIGBROTHER-26DEC31-ANG
Cluster 10
Will Melody Morris win Big Brother Season 28
Will Melody Morris win Big Brother Season 28?: Melody Morris
KXBIGBROTHER-26DEC31-MEL
Analysis
This contract reflects a 7% probability that Barrett Pfeiffer will win Big Brother Season 28, based on aggregated trading data from prediction markets. At this odds level, Pfeiffer is positioned as a mid-tier contender rather than a frontrunner or long shot. The probability likely reflects his performance in early game phases, social positioning, and competition strength relative to other houseguests. Key factors driving this valuation include his demonstrated physical or strategic gameplay, jury management approach, and how he compares to higher-probability contestants like Ashley Trail (7%) and Lyric Medeiros (8%). Movement in this probability would depend on his survival in upcoming evictions, relationship dynamics with other houseguests, and shifts in fan or betting sentiment as the season progresses. The resolution of this market will depend on the finale timing and final houseguest standing.
- ›Pfeiffer's competition performance and win-loss record in physical and mental challenges will directly impact eviction survival odds
- ›His current position in house alliances and social relationships determine whether he remains a voting target or gains jury respect
- ›Trading volume of $335 in 24 hours for his contract suggests moderate but not overwhelming market interest compared to top contenders
- ›The 1-2 cent spread between his price (9¢) and similar contenders (Patel at 6¢, Brown at 6¢) indicates marginal differentiation in expected probability
- ›Upcoming eviction episodes and jury composition changes will create focal points where market probability adjusts based on new information
What moved the line
- Aug 22Mallory Aurichio↓7pp13→6¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Dee Valladares↑5pp16→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Yash Patel↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Yash Patel↑3pp7→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Taylor Brown↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will The Warehouse Project at Depot Mayfield be in the Top 5 on Dj Mag Top 100 Clubslast 50% · 4d
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 5d
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 6d
- Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026last 45% · 6d
- Will James Fishback concede defeat in the the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race before Aug 20, 2026last 79% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.