Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.70
Leader sits at 97% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 81%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least $8.66
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
81¢
At least $8.67
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$399
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8
Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.70?: At least $8.70
KXWENBACONATOR-26AUG02-T8.70
Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.66?: At least $8.66
KXWENBACONATOR-26AUG02-T8.66
Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.72?: At least $8.72
KXWENBACONATOR-26AUG02-T8.72
Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.71?: At least $8.71
KXWENBACONATOR-26AUG02-T8.71
Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.69?: At least $8.69
KXWENBACONATOR-26AUG02-T8.69
Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.68?: At least $8.68
KXWENBACONATOR-26AUG02-T8.68
Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.67?: At least $8.67
KXWENBACONATOR-26AUG02-T8.67
Analysis
This market estimates whether the average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator will reach at least $8.70 in July 2026, with traders currently assigning 94% probability to prices at $8.66 or above. The steep pricing structure suggests consensus around a narrow range between $8.66 and $8.71, reflecting expectations that inflation and menu price adjustments will push the sandwich into this zone. Historical Baconator pricing trends, Wendy's corporate guidance on menu inflation, and actual July 2026 pricing data—available after month-end—will determine the outcome. The declining probabilities across higher price thresholds indicate traders expect prices closer to $8.66-$8.68 rather than exceeding $8.71, though confidence diminishes sharply above $8.70. Resolution depends on verified average pricing across U.S. locations by early August 2026.
- ›Historical Baconator pricing trajectory from 2024-2026 relative to inflation rate and Wendy's stated menu adjustment policies
- ›Regional pricing variation and whether the U.S. average calculation method weights by location density or counts equally
- ›Wendy's second-quarter 2026 earnings guidance and any announced menu price changes taking effect in July 2026
- ›Competitor pricing actions by McDonald's, Burger King, and other fast-casual chains affecting demand and price elasticity
- ›Actual transaction data from July 2026 showing average Baconator prices at sampled U.S. Wendy's locations
What moved the line
- Jul 8At least $8.67↑24pp57→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8At least $8.70↑15pp17→32¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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