Will Darline Graham Nordone be the next the Class 2 U.S. Senator from South Carolina before Jan 4, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+82pp
17h ago
24h volume
$66K
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 11, 2027
182 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the next the Class 2 U.S. Senator from South Carolina before Jan 4, 2027
Analysis
This market estimates a 15% probability that Darline Graham Nordone will be elected as South Carolina's Class 2 U.S. Senator by January 4, 2027. The relatively low probability reflects that she faces significant competition in what appears to be an open-seat race. The 2026 general election in November will be the primary determinant, with voter preferences, candidate resources, and turnout patterns shaping the outcome. Her current market price of 5 cents, combined with minimal trading volume ($16 in 24 hours), suggests limited market conviction compared to other candidates like Pamela Evette (45 cents). The resolution will occur on January 4, 2027, when either she or another candidate takes the Senate seat.
- ›Pamela Evette holds a substantially higher implied probability (45%) as a leading Republican candidate, indicating market participants view her as the frontrunner
- ›Darline Graham Nordone's contract shows minimal liquidity ($16 daily volume) compared to other candidates, suggesting low trader confidence in her candidacy
- ›The November 2026 general election serves as the definitive catalyst—voter turnout and preference distribution will directly determine whether she wins the seat
- ›Nikki Haley, despite being at 6 cents, retains a historical political profile that may attract market attention despite lower current probability
- ›South Carolina's voting patterns and demographic composition will influence both primary (if applicable) and general election dynamics in this open-seat race
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Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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