Will Chapecoense SC record the first goal of the game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
Aug 5, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will CR Vasco da Gama RJ record the first goal of the game
Will CR Vasco da Gama RJ record the first goal of the game?: CR Vasco da Gama RJ
KXBRASILEIROFTTS-26JUL25VDGMIR-VDG
Cluster 2
Will Mirassol FC SP record the first goal of the game
Will Mirassol FC SP record the first goal of the game?: Mirassol FC SP
KXBRASILEIROFTTS-26JUL25VDGMIR-MIR
Cluster 3
Will SC Corinthians SP record the first goal of the game
Will SC Corinthians SP record the first goal of the game?: SC Corinthians SP
KXBRASILEIROFTTS-26JUL23CORCR-COR
Cluster 4
Will Clube do Remo PA record the first goal of the game
Will Clube do Remo PA record the first goal of the game?: Clube do Remo PA
KXBRASILEIROFTTS-26JUL23CORCR-CR
Cluster 5
Will Botafogo FR RJ record the first goal of the game
Will Botafogo FR RJ record the first goal of the game?: Botafogo FR RJ
KXBRASILEIROFTTS-26JUL23BOTVIT-BOT
Cluster 6
Will EC Vitoria BA record the first goal of the game
Will EC Vitoria BA record the first goal of the game?: EC Vitoria BA
KXBRASILEIROFTTS-26JUL23BOTVIT-VIT
Analysis
This 40% probability reflects the current market assessment that Chapecoense SC will score the opening goal in their upcoming match against Coritiba FC PR. The market is pricing this as slightly below even odds, suggesting Coritiba is favored to score first based on factors like relative team form, offensive capability, or home-field advantage. The probability will be resolved when the match concludes and the first goal is officially recorded. Key drivers of the current level likely include recent goal-scoring records of both teams, head-to-head historical patterns, and lineup strength. The match kickoff represents the singular catalyst that will eliminate all uncertainty around this outcome.
- ›Chapecoense's recent goal-scoring rate in opening phases of matches compared to historical baseline
- ›Coritiba's offensive production statistics and conversion efficiency, particularly early in matches
- ›Head-to-head historical data on which team has scored first in previous matchups
- ›Team lineup availability, injuries to key attacking players, or recent tactical adjustments
- ›Venue location (home/away) and any historical correlation to first-goal advantage for either side
What moved the line
- Jul 23CR Vasco da Gama RJ↑48pp2→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Botafogo FR RJ↑38pp2→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Mirassol FC SP↑34pp1→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Botafogo FR RJ↓8pp40→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20EC Vitoria BA↑5pp2→7¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in sports
- Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...last 13% · 26d
- How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this seasonlast 93% · 36d
- Will Iran Play in the World Cuplast 97% · 38d
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 49d
- ATP Tennis Matcheslast 50% · 49d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.