Will Webull Corporation report above 5.1 million Funded Accounts in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 90% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 80%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 5.1 million
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
80¢
Above 5.15 million
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 10, 2027
216 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Webull CORP report Above 5
Will Webull CORP report Above 5.2 million funded accounts in Q2 2026?: Above 5.2 million
KXBULL-26AUGFUNDED-5200000.0
Will Webull CORP report Above 5.4 million funded accounts in Q3 2026?: Above 5.4 million
KXBULL-26NOVFUNDED-5400000.0
Will Webull CORP report Above 5.35 million funded accounts in Q3 2026?: Above 5.35 million
KXBULL-26NOVFUNDED-5350000.0
Will Webull CORP report Above 5.3 million funded accounts in Q3 2026?: Above 5.3 million
KXBULL-26NOVFUNDED-5300000.0
Will Webull CORP report Above 5.25 million funded accounts in Q3 2026?: Above 5.25 million
KXBULL-26NOVFUNDED-5250000.0
Will Webull CORP report Above 5.2 million funded accounts in Q3 2026?: Above 5.2 million
KXBULL-26NOVFUNDED-5200000.0
Will Webull CORP report Above 5.15 million funded accounts in Q3 2026?: Above 5.15 million
KXBULL-26NOVFUNDED-5150000.0
Will Webull CORP report Above 5.25 million funded accounts in Q2 2026?: Above 5.25 million
KXBULL-26AUGFUNDED-5250000.0
Will Webull CORP report Above 5.15 million funded accounts in Q2 2026?: Above 5.15 million
KXBULL-26AUGFUNDED-5150000.0
Will Webull CORP report Above 5.1 million funded accounts in Q2 2026?: Above 5.1 million
KXBULL-26AUGFUNDED-5100000.0
Analysis
Prediction markets currently price a 94% probability that Webull Corporation will report above 5.1 million funded accounts when it releases Q1 2026 financial results. This high confidence reflects the company's recent growth trajectory and existing account base, though traders show declining certainty as the threshold increases—only 26% odds for exceeding 5.25 million accounts. The outcome hinges on whether Webull sustained its user acquisition pace through early 2026 or faced headwinds from market volatility or competitive pressures. Resolution depends entirely on Webull's official Q1 earnings report or investor disclosure, which typically occurs in April or May following quarter-end. The wide spread between contract prices (from 26¢ to 94¢) indicates material uncertainty about the upper bounds of account growth, even while the base case appears likely.
- ›Webull's historical account growth rate and whether the company maintained quarterly net additions through Q1 2026
- ›Market conditions in early 2026 affecting retail trading participation and brokerage account openings
- ›Competitive dynamics with other zero-commission brokers and whether Webull gained or lost market share
- ›The specific definition and measurement methodology Webull uses for 'funded accounts' in official disclosures
- ›The timing and exact content of Webull's Q1 2026 earnings announcement, including whether account figures are independently verified
What moved the line
- Aug 2Above 5.2 million↑11pp63→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above 5.3 million↑9pp25→34¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Above 5.25 million↓4pp56→52¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Above 5.35 million↑4pp13→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above 5.15 million↑3pp81→84¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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