Will Donald Trump endorse Russell Fry in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 11, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 95% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
95%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
11 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump endorse Darline Graham Nordone in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 11, 2026
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 96% probability that Donald Trump will endorse Darline Graham Nordone—not Russell Fry—in South Carolina's 2026 Senate race by August 11, 2026. This reflects current expectations about Trump's endorsement choice in a competitive Republican primary. The high probability suggests either a strong signal from Trump's team, existing public statements, or betting participants' assessments of Trump's preferences among the candidates. Key drivers include recent statements from Trump or his advisors, candidate relationships with the Trump camp, polling data affecting viability perceptions, and fundraising dynamics. The resolution date of August 11 provides a firm deadline; any formal endorsement announcement before then—or lack thereof—will settle the market. Significant shifts would likely follow direct Trump comments, major candidate events, or shifts in candidate momentum.
- ›Trump's explicit public statements or advisor signals about preferred South Carolina Senate candidates
- ›Darline Graham Nordone's current political standing, name recognition, and perceived alignment with Trump's endorsement strategy
- ›Russell Fry's profile and any prior relationship or distance from Trump
- ›Whether Trump has already committed to an endorsement timeline or remains undecided as of late July 2026
- ›Campaign momentum, polling data, and fundraising among candidates competing in the Republican primary
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (95% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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