Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Aug 1, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the Senate Judiciary Committee will vote to report Todd Blanche's nomination for U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before August 1, 2026. At 21% for the August deadline, markets price in significant uncertainty about timeline. The contract structure shows traders expect the committee process to extend beyond summer—the January 2027 outcome sits at 57%, suggesting most probability mass falls in fall 2026. Key drivers include the current pace of committee scheduling, typical confirmation timelines for attorney general nominees, and any procedural delays. The next concrete milestone would be the actual committee markup session date, which would either accelerate or defer the reporting timeline. Political dynamics and competing legislative priorities could also shift urgency.

• ›Committee markup date has not been publicly announced as of mid-June 2026, creating substantial timeline uncertainty
• ›Historical attorney general confirmations typically require 2-4 months from committee vote to full Senate vote, suggesting fall 2026 is the baseline scenario
• ›The 26-point probability gap between the August deadline (21%) and September deadline (47%) indicates markets expect mid-to-late August committee action at earliest
• ›Competing Senate priorities and recess schedules in summer months would mechanically delay markup beyond the August 1 cutoff
• ›Market pricing concentrates around January 2027 (57%) rather than near-term dates, suggesting expectations of extended process with possible delays

What moved the line

• Jun 23Before Sep 1, 2026↓21pp71→50¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 25Before Sep 1, 2026↑16pp58→74¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 25Before Jan 1, 2027↑14pp62→76¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Before Jan 1, 2027↓10pp78→68¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Before Sep 1, 2026↑8pp50→58¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in election 2026

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How we compute these odds