Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026
Leader sits at 89% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
No one
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Abdul El-Sayed
Spread
82pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$201
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
2 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Mallory McMorrow endorse
Will Mallory McMorrow endorse No one in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026?: No one
KXMCMORROWENDORSE-26AUG04-NOONE
Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026?: Abdul El-Sayed
KXMCMORROWENDORSE-26AUG04-AELS
Analysis
Market participants currently assess a 71% probability that Michigan state Senator Mallory McMorrow will not endorse any candidate in the 2026 U.S. Senate race before August 4, 2026, with smaller probabilities assigned to endorsements of Abdul El-Sayed (11%) or Haley Stevens (16%). This reflects uncertainty about McMorrow's political positioning and timing in what appears to be a competitive Democratic primary. The outcome hinges on McMorrow's strategic calculation regarding whether an early endorsement aids her political influence or constrains her options. The August 4 deadline is imminent, making this a near-term resolution event. Primary election dynamics, intra-party relationships, and McMorrow's public statements over the next week will largely determine the outcome, with any formal endorsement announcement immediately resolving the question.
- ›McMorrow has not publicly committed to endorsing any candidate as of July 28, 2026, with only 7 days until the resolution deadline
- ›The market assigns 11% to El-Sayed and 16% to Stevens, suggesting uncertainty about which candidate—if any—McMorrow might support
- ›High 24-hour trading volume ($989-$1,010 on top contracts) indicates active disagreement among participants about the likelihood of an endorsement
- ›Early August timing may coincide with Michigan Democratic Party activities, candidate events, or debate schedules that could trigger public endorsement announcements
- ›McMorrow's prior political positioning and public relationships with El-Sayed and Stevens would influence which candidate she might endorse if she chooses to do so
What moved the line
- Jul 29No one↑21pp62→83¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1No one↑6pp83→89¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 28Abdul El-Sayed↓3pp14→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (89% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Election 2026: House control odds shift as Dem momentum continues
After a string of special election wins and favorable polling, Democrats’ probability of winning the House in 2026 jumped 3¢ to 83¢. The Senate remains a knife‑edge, with Republicans at 53¢. The Michigan Democratic Senate primary sees Abdul El‑Sayed as a near‑certainty (97¢) on massive volume.
2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored to Keep House; Senate Battlegrounds Tight
The market gives Democrats an 83% chance of retaining the House, while Senate control is a toss‑up (45% Democrat, 55% Republican). Mega‑volume markets like the Michigan Senate primary (410k volume) and the Florida gubernatorial primary (166k volume) highlight intense intraparty competition.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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