Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 5.5% comparable restaurant sales in Q3 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that The Cheesecake Factory will achieve above 5.5% comparable restaurant sales growth in Q3 2026. The 40-cent price on this specific threshold suggests traders view stronger performance as less likely than modest growth (the 4-4.5% range trades at 67-69 cents), indicating cautious optimism about consumer spending and restaurant traffic. The outcome will be determined when the company reports Q3 2026 earnings, typically in late October or early November 2026. Current pricing across the contract range—from 21 cents for above 6% to 69 cents for above 4%—reflects uncertainty about both macroeconomic conditions during summer-fall 2026 and company-specific execution. Comparable sales momentum, labor cost pressures, and discretionary dining trends will be primary drivers of the actual result.

• ›Q3 2026 comparable sales threshold of 5.5% is notably higher than the 4-4.5% range where market probability peaks, suggesting traders assign significantly lower odds to accelerating growth at that level
• ›The contract price spread (21¢ to 69¢ across different thresholds) indicates market uncertainty; traders price above 4% at nearly 70% but above 5.5% at only 40%, showing skepticism of sustained acceleration
• ›Comparable sales data depends on both traffic and ticket size; changes in consumer discretionary spending or menu pricing in Q3 2026 would directly affect whether this threshold is reached
• ›Resolution occurs on the company's Q3 2026 earnings release date (likely late October or November 2026), with no interim catalysts to adjust the probability meaningfully
• ›Labor inflation, food costs, and promotional activity through Q3 2026 represent operational variables that directly influence whether comparable sales growth will exceed or fall short of 5.5%

What moved the line

• Sep 18Above 6%↑15pp41→56¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Above 5.5%↑13pp54→67¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Above 4.5%↑12pp76→88¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Above 5%↑12pp62→74¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Above 5.5%↓9pp63→54¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds