Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026
Leader sits at 64% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 57%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
57¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
109 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before
Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP-OCT01
Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP-DEC01
Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP-JAN01
Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP-NOV01
Analysis
The market currently prices an 11% chance that Trump orders lower tariffs on Canada before January 1, 2027, with only a 5% probability the action occurs before December 1, 2026. This reflects skepticism that tariff relief will happen in the remaining months of 2026, despite ongoing trade tensions and periodic renegotiation discussions between the US and Canada. The low probability suggests traders believe Trump is more likely to maintain or increase tariffs than reduce them in this timeframe. Movement would depend on shifts in trade policy strategy, negotiations over USMCA terms, or domestic political pressures favoring tariff relief. The December 1 and November 1 contract prices show even tighter odds, indicating concentrated doubt about near-term action. Any formal announcement from Trump or his administration regarding Canadian tariff reductions would directly resolve this question.
- ›Trump has generally favored protectionist tariff policies; historical pattern of tariff increases rather than decreases would need to reverse
- ›No scheduled trade negotiation deadlines or public policy announcements between now and Jan 1, 2027 have been reported
- ›The gap between Nov 1 (5%), Dec 1 (5%), and Jan 1 (11%) probabilities suggests marginally higher expectations only after the calendar turns to 2027
- ›Canadian tariff negotiations typically occur during broader USMCA review periods or in response to specific trade disputes; no acute crisis requiring immediate tariff reduction is evident
- ›Volume across all three contracts is near zero ($0 24h), indicating minimal recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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