Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% by Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 93% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
5.02% or above
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
89¢
5.03% or above
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
103 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.02% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.01
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.25% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.24
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.24% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.23
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.04% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.03
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.16% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.15
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.03% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.02
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.2% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.19
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.15% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.14
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.14% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.13
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.13% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.12
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.12% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.11
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.11% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.10
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.1% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.09
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.09% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.08
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.08% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.07
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.07% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.06
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.06% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.05
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% by Jan 1, 2027?: 5.05% or above
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.04
Analysis
This 93% probability reflects market expectation that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will close above 4.99% on January 1, 2027—roughly 3.5 months away. The high probability suggests traders believe current yield levels, shaped by Federal Reserve policy, inflation expectations, and growth forecasts, are unlikely to fall below this threshold before year-end. Key drivers include upcoming inflation data releases and Fed communications that could signal rate-path expectations. The contract series shows declining probabilities at higher yield thresholds (89% at 5.01%, 86% at 5.02%), indicating markets price in modest upside risk but consider significant further increases less likely. Resolution depends on macroeconomic conditions through December, particularly labor-market data and inflation readings that traditionally influence bond yields.
- ›Current 10Y yield levels are near or above 4.99%, making a sustained drop below this threshold the primary price movement required to resolve 'No'
- ›Fed policy expectations and inflation outlook through Q4 2026 will heavily influence yield trajectories; any surprise tightening or deflation signals could pressure yields downward
- ›The probability gradient across contracts (93% at 4.99% down to 86% at 5.02%) suggests market uncertainty is concentrated in the 4.99–5.03% range rather than at extremes
- ›Monthly employment and CPI releases between September and December 2026 will be the most direct catalysts for yield re-pricing
- ›Bond market liquidity and demand from foreign central banks near year-end could amplify or dampen yield volatility independent of fundamental data
What moved the line
- Sep 195.02% or above↑4pp89→93¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 195.12% or above↓4pp62→58¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 195.14% or above↓4pp57→53¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 195.25% or above↑3pp37→40¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 195.16% or above↓3pp53→50¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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