Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026
Leader sits at 83% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jon Ossoff
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Dan Osborn
Spread
51pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
162 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Barack Obama endorse
Will Barack Obama endorse Dan Osborn in Nebraska Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Dan Osborn
KXOBAMAENDORSE-26NOV03-DOSB
Will Barack Obama endorse Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia Governor before Nov 3, 2026?: Keisha Lance Bottoms
KXOBAMAENDORSE-26NOV03-KBOT
Will Barack Obama endorse Jon Ossoff in Georgia Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Jon Ossoff
KXOBAMAENDORSE-26NOV03-JOSS
Analysis
This contract measures the probability that former President Barack Obama will publicly endorse Graham Platner in Maine's 2026 Senate race before November 3. At 76%, the market reflects strong expectation of an endorsement, placing this outcome ahead of several other potential Obama endorsements in competitive Senate and gubernatorial races. The probability is driven by Platner's political profile, the competitiveness of Maine's Senate race, and Obama's historical pattern of endorsing candidates in key contests. The main resolution catalyst is the general election campaign period and any public statements from Obama or his representatives between now and early November 2026. Factors that could shift the probability include changes in the race's competitiveness, shifts in Democratic party strategy, or statements from Obama regarding his endorsement plans for 2026.
- ›Obama's historical endorsement patterns in Maine politics and competitive Senate races
- ›Platner's status as a declared candidate and perceived viability heading into the final stretch of the campaign
- ›Competitive dynamics in Maine's Senate race and whether it becomes a targeted priority for national Democratic figures
- ›Public statements or signals from Obama's team about planned 2026 endorsements before the November deadline
- ›Relative endorsement volume across the related contracts (Dan Osborn at 61¢, Jon Ossoff at 76¢) suggesting market differentiation based on candidate profile or race dynamics
What moved the line
- May 23Keisha Lance Bottoms↓64pp68→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Dan Osborn↓18pp61→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 18Jon Ossoff↑4pp76→80¢ · Kalshi
- May 18Keisha Lance Bottoms↑4pp61→65¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Jon Ossoff↑3pp80→83¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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