Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026
Leader sits at 83% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 63%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jon Ossoff
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
63¢
Mary Peltola
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
46 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Barack Obama endorse
Will Barack Obama endorse Dan Osborn in Nebraska Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Dan Osborn
KXOBAMAENDORSE-26NOV03-DOSB
Will Barack Obama endorse Sherrod Brown in Ohio Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Sherrod Brown
KXOBAMAENDORSE-26NOV03-SBRO
Will Barack Obama endorse Roy Cooper in North Carolina Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Roy Cooper
KXOBAMAENDORSE-26NOV03-RCOO
Will Barack Obama endorse Mary Peltola in Alaska Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Mary Peltola
KXOBAMAENDORSE-26NOV03-MPEL
Will Barack Obama endorse Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia Governor before Nov 3, 2026?: Keisha Lance Bottoms
KXOBAMAENDORSE-26NOV03-KBOT
Will Barack Obama endorse Karen Bass in Los Angeles Mayor before Nov 3, 2026?: Karen Bass
KXOBAMAENDORSE-26NOV03-KBAS
Will Barack Obama endorse Jon Ossoff in Georgia Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Jon Ossoff
KXOBAMAENDORSE-26NOV03-JOSS
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Barack Obama will endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before Election Day on November 3, 2026. The 83% price indicates high confidence in such an endorsement occurring. Key drivers include Obama's historical pattern of selective endorsements in competitive Senate races, his relationship with Maine's Democratic establishment, and the timing of when Democratic primary contests conclude. The main uncertainty centers on whether Obama views the Maine race as sufficiently competitive or strategically important to warrant a public endorsement. The resolution will depend on Obama's stated public positions and any official endorsement announcements between now and Election Day. High-profile Democratic endorsements typically cluster in the final weeks before general elections or during primary contests when races tighten.
- ›Obama's recent endorsement activity in other 2026 races, particularly whether he has already committed to endorsing Jon Ossoff in Georgia (priced at 83%) or other candidates
- ›The competitiveness of the Maine Senate race and whether it reaches polling thresholds that historically trigger Obama's involvement in Senate endorsements
- ›The timing of Maine's election cycle and primary calendar relative to when Obama typically makes endorsement announcements
- ›Whether Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee and has secured Democratic Party establishment support before potential endorsement opportunities arise
- ›Public statements or reported discussions from Obama's team or Maine Democratic leadership regarding endorsement strategy for the 2026 cycle
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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