Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026
Leader sits at 66% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 64%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
64¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
109 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before
Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXUSCANADATARIFFUP-26SEP-OCT01
Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXUSCANADATARIFFUP-26SEP-DEC01
Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXUSCANADATARIFFUP-26SEP-NOV01
Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXUSCANADATARIFFUP-26SEP-JAN01
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Trump will announce new or increased tariffs on Canada before January 1, 2027—currently priced at 11%, indicating traders view this as unlikely but not remote. Trump has previously used tariffs as a negotiating tool, and Canada is a major U.S. trading partner where tariff disputes have historical precedent. The relatively low probability suggests traders expect either ongoing negotiations without tariff escalation, or that any announcements would come after the year-end deadline. The main factors driving this price are Trump's current trade policy stance, ongoing bilateral negotiations, and the political calendar. The most significant catalyst would be any announcement from the Trump administration regarding Canada-specific trade measures, with the probability sensitive to both public statements and formal policy declarations through early December.
- ›Trump's recent public statements on Canadian tariffs or trade negotiations and whether his rhetoric indicates imminent action
- ›Status of any ongoing trade negotiations with Canada as of mid-September 2026 and whether they show signs of breakdown
- ›Historical pattern of Trump tariff announcements—whether they typically require lengthy lead time or can be implemented on short notice
- ›Domestic political factors in the U.S. that might incentivize or discourage trade actions before year-end 2026
- ›Any specific trade disputes or disagreements between the U.S. and Canada that are currently escalating or unresolved
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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