Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce new or increased tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 36% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Before Nov 1, 2026
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
101 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce new or increased tariffs on U.S. goods before
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce new or increased tariffs on U.S. goods before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXCANUSRAISE-27-26OCT01
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce new or increased tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXCANUSRAISE-27-27JAN01
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce new or increased tariffs on U.S. goods before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXCANUSRAISE-27-26DEC01
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce new or increased tariffs on U.S. goods before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXCANUSRAISE-27-26NOV01
Analysis
This represents a 16% chance that Canada's Prime Minister will announce new or increased tariffs on U.S. goods before the end of 2026. The low probability reflects that most traders expect Canada to avoid unilateral tariff announcements in the next four months, though contract prices are consistent across all timeframes (October, November, December, and January deadlines all at 15-16 cents). The main factors depressing this probability are the typical reluctance of trade partners to escalate during negotiation periods and absence of recent policy signals suggesting imminent announcements. Resolution depends primarily on bilateral trade negotiations, any U.S. policy changes, and domestic political pressures—with October through December representing the window when formal announcements could occur. Current low trading volume suggests limited recent market repricing.
- ›Canada-U.S. trade negotiations status and timeline for any formal bilateral agreements or disputes
- ›Recent statements or policy signals from the Canadian government regarding tariff strategy toward U.S. goods
- ›U.S. trade policy developments that might provoke a Canadian response, including any announced American tariffs
- ›Domestic economic pressures in Canada that could create political incentive for protectionist measures
- ›Consistent pricing across all four contract timeframes suggests traders assign roughly equal probability to announcements in October, November, December, or early January
What moved the line
- Sep 17Before Nov 1, 2026↓34pp46→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Before Oct 1, 2026↓30pp35→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Before Dec 1, 2026↓23pp48→25¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Before Jan 1, 2027↑12pp54→66¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Before Jan 1, 2027↓7pp66→59¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 54% · 0d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 35% · 0d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 9d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 9d
- Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.0%last 87% · 11d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Copper crash signals recession fears as VIX jumps
Copper (CPER) dropped -2.37% to $38.27 while the VIX rose +0.87% to $17.49. This classic recession indicator combination has historically preceded economic contractions. Traders should watch for further copper weakness confirming demand destruction.
Copper Plunges 2.37% – Recession Signal or China Demand Fears?
Copper (CPER) dropped sharply, the second-worst performer after EEM, raising recession alarms. Combined with a slight VIX uptick and flat equities, the message is caution.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.