Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.0%
Leader sits at 87% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.0%
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Above 0.1%
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
19 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0
Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%
KXPCEHEAD-26SEP30-T0.0
Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXPCEHEAD-26SEP30-T0.4
Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.3%?: Above 0.3%
KXPCEHEAD-26SEP30-T0.3
Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXPCEHEAD-26SEP30-T0.2
Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.1%?: Above 0.1%
KXPCEHEAD-26SEP30-T0.1
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that headline PCE inflation for August 2026 will show a month-over-month increase rather than stability or deflation. The contracts are tightly clustered at 70 cents for both 0.0% and 0.1% thresholds, then drop sharply below 0.2%, suggesting traders expect inflation in the range of 0.1% but view higher readings as unlikely. The main drivers are current economic momentum, Federal Reserve policy stance, and energy price movements. Market pricing indicates relatively low conviction—the 60% probability for above 0.0% is only moderately confident. The August 2026 PCE release date (scheduled for late September 2026) will provide the definitive resolution. Traders are balancing expectations of modest inflation against the possibility of a flat or slightly deflationary month-over-month reading.
- ›Contract pricing shows sharp drop from 70¢ at 0.1% to 7¢ at 0.2%, indicating consensus for very low monthly inflation if above zero
- ›Zero trading volume across all contracts in the past 24 hours suggests limited recent position changes or conviction updates
- ›The 60-70% probability band for 0.0-0.1% inflation is consistent with recent PCE trend data and Fed expectations for moderate price growth
- ›Energy price volatility and seasonal adjustments historically create month-to-month PCE swings, making predictions below 0.3% inherently uncertain
- ›August 2026 PCE data release scheduled for late September 2026 will definitively settle all eight contracts simultaneously
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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