Will Cava Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 105

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Cava's monthly foot traffic will exceed 105 visits in August 2026, currently priced at 51% likelihood. The contract structure reveals a gradual confidence decline as thresholds increase: traffic above 100 trades at 52%, but above 104 drops to just 16%, suggesting the market expects results clustered in the high-90s to low-100s range. The main driver is historical foot-traffic patterns and seasonal trends, with August typically showing summer traffic dynamics. Resolution will depend on actual foot-traffic data released post-month, likely reported in early September. Current thin trading volume ($0 in the past 24 hours across these contracts) suggests limited recent conviction, and no major announced promotions or operational changes appear to be pricing in dramatic shifts. The narrow gap between 51% and 49% for the leading outcome indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether August will slightly exceed or fall just short of the 105 threshold.

• ›Historical August foot-traffic baseline for Cava relative to the 105-unit threshold; seasonal patterns and year-over-year growth rates
• ›Promotional calendar and staffing levels scheduled for August 2026; any announced marketing initiatives or temporary store closures
• ›Q3 2026 same-store sales trends and comparable location traffic data; whether recent periods show acceleration or deceleration
• ›Definition and measurement methodology for 'foot traffic' used in official reporting; potential ambiguity in how visits are counted or aggregated
• ›Post-August data release timing and source credibility; when and how Cava reports August foot-traffic figures to the market

What moved the line

• Aug 18Above 97↓74pp75→1¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 19Above 97↑40pp1→41¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 23Above 101↓32pp49→17¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 97↑32pp41→73¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 17Above 98↓29pp63→34¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds