Will India win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
4 contracts
Closes
Oct 15, 2026
159 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will India win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament
Will India win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: India
KXCHESSOLYMPIAD-26-IND
Cluster 2
Will United States of America win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament
Cluster 3
Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament
Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Uzbekistan
KXCHESSOLYMPIAD-26-UZB
Cluster 4
Will China win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament
Will China win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: China
KXCHESSOLYMPIAD-26-CHN
Analysis
This market estimates a 31% probability that India's chess team will win the Open section of the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad, scheduled for 2026. The current odds reflect India's strong but not dominant position in international team chess, where historical performance, current player ratings, and field composition typically determine outcomes. The main factors supporting this probability are India's recent improvements in team strength and Elo ratings, though they face established competitors like China, Russia (if eligible), and the United States. The probability could shift significantly based on the final tournament pairings, the performance of top-ranked Indian players in the months leading up to competition, and withdrawals or absences of rival nations. Resolution will occur in late 2026 or early 2027 when the tournament concludes.
- ›India's average team Elo rating relative to other national teams competing in the Open section
- ›Recent performance trends of India's top players in classical chess competitions during 2025-2026
- ›Whether strong chess nations with comparable or higher historical Olympiad success rates participate in this edition
- ›Tournament format and pairing rules, which can affect outcomes for teams in the 5-10 seed range
- ›Availability and form of India's core players (particularly those rated 2700+ FIDE) immediately before the event
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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