Will the Hikaru Nakamura win the World Chess Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
2 contracts
Closes
Dec 30, 2028
889 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the Gukesh Dommaraju win the World Chess Championship
Will the Gukesh Dommaraju win the World Chess Championship?: Gukesh Dommaraju
KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-GDOM
Cluster 2
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the World Chess Championship
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the World Chess Championship?: Javokhir Sindarov
KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-JSIN
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Hikaru Nakamura will win the next World Chess Championship match. At 33%, the market implies he is among the top contenders but faces significant competition from other elite players. Nakamura's ranking relative to active championship candidates and his recent tournament performance drive this assessment. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the scheduled championship match itself, which determines the actual winner. Factors like rating fluctuations, head-to-head records against leading competitors, and qualification results leading up to the match will influence whether this probability moves higher or lower before the event occurs. The current odds suggest the market views the title as genuinely competitive among multiple strong players rather than heavily favoring any single candidate.
- ›Nakamura's current FIDE rating and ranking compared to other championship candidates
- ›Head-to-head classical game records between Nakamura and the likely championship challenger
- ›Tournament results in major events during the qualification period leading to the championship
- ›Changes in rating points and competitive performance in the months preceding the match
- ›The identity and strength of the opponent Nakamura would face in a championship match
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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