Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026
Leader sits at 90% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Oct 1, 2026
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Before Jan 1, 2027
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will a budget resolution passed the House before
Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXHBUDGETRES-26JUN-26AUG01
Will a budget resolution passed the House before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXHBUDGETRES-26JUN-26OCT01
Will a budget resolution passed the House before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXHBUDGETRES-26JUN-27JAN01
Analysis
A 29% probability indicates traders assess it as unlikely (but not remote) that the House passes a budget resolution by August 1, 2026. The timeline matters: only ~7 weeks remain, and budget processes typically require negotiation across party lines and procedural time. The market's higher confidence in passage by January 2027 (59%) suggests traders expect a resolution but anticipate delays past the August deadline. Key drivers include whether Congress prioritizes budget work before the August recess and whether partisan disagreements block early passage. The immediate catalyst is whether leadership schedules a budget vote before late July; any such announcement would shift probabilities significantly based on the vote outlook.
- ›As of June 11, 2026, only 51 days remain until August 1—a compressed window for budget negotiations and floor votes
- ›Market prices on later deadlines (October at 46¢, January at 59¢) are substantially higher, indicating traders expect passage but anticipate missing the August target
- ›Congressional recesses and summer schedules historically reduce legislative productivity; the August recess typically begins in early-to-mid August
- ›Partisan budget negotiations often extend timelines; a simple majority requirement could accelerate passage if one party controls both chambers
- ›No scheduled budget vote announcement or leadership statement by mid-June would be observable evidence affecting near-term probability shifts
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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