Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

A 29% probability indicates traders assess it as unlikely (but not remote) that the House passes a budget resolution by August 1, 2026. The timeline matters: only ~7 weeks remain, and budget processes typically require negotiation across party lines and procedural time. The market's higher confidence in passage by January 2027 (59%) suggests traders expect a resolution but anticipate delays past the August deadline. Key drivers include whether Congress prioritizes budget work before the August recess and whether partisan disagreements block early passage. The immediate catalyst is whether leadership schedules a budget vote before late July; any such announcement would shift probabilities significantly based on the vote outlook.

• ›As of June 11, 2026, only 51 days remain until August 1—a compressed window for budget negotiations and floor votes
• ›Market prices on later deadlines (October at 46¢, January at 59¢) are substantially higher, indicating traders expect passage but anticipate missing the August target
• ›Congressional recesses and summer schedules historically reduce legislative productivity; the August recess typically begins in early-to-mid August
• ›Partisan budget negotiations often extend timelines; a simple majority requirement could accelerate passage if one party controls both chambers
• ›No scheduled budget vote announcement or leadership statement by mid-June would be observable evidence affecting near-term probability shifts

What moved the line

• Jun 22Before Oct 1, 2026↓24pp46→22¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22Before Aug 1, 2026↓16pp24→8¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22Before Jan 1, 2027↓14pp51→37¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 25Before Oct 1, 2026↓9pp20→11¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 20Before Aug 1, 2026↓8pp30→22¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds