Will Jean-Paul Bourgeois win Chopped Castaways
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$103
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
196 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jean-Paul Bourgeois win Chopped Castaways: Season 1
Will Jean-Paul Bourgeois win Chopped Castaways: Season 1?: Jean-Paul Bourgeois
KXCHOPPEDCASTAWAYS-26DEC31-JEA
Cluster 2
Will Paulette Tejada win Chopped Castaways: Season 1
Will Paulette Tejada win Chopped Castaways: Season 1?: Paulette Tejada
KXCHOPPEDCASTAWAYS-26DEC31-PAU
Cluster 3
Will Barry Owens win Chopped Castaways: Season 1
Will Barry Owens win Chopped Castaways: Season 1?: Barry Owens
KXCHOPPEDCASTAWAYS-26DEC31-BAR
Analysis
This 10% probability indicates that Jean-Paul Bourgeois has a one-in-ten chance of winning the Chopin Castaways competition. Current estimates reflect limited public information about Bourgeois's competitive track record, skills, or likelihood relative to other contestants. The probability may adjust based on contestant announcements, revealed competition format details, or public performance records. Typical factors influencing such competitions include prior experience in similar events, demonstrated expertise relevant to the competition's challenges, and media coverage that reveals contestant qualifications. The main uncertainty driver is the pending official contestant roster announcement and any public information released about competitors' backgrounds. As the event date approaches, additional details about competition structure or participant profiles would likely shift market expectations.
- ›Official contestant roster announcement and public availability of competitor background information
- ›Demonstrated prior competition experience or relevant expertise of Bourgeois in the competition's domain
- ›Competition format and rule structure, which determine how individual skills translate to overall performance
- ›Market depth and liquidity of Bourgeois-specific contracts relative to general competition betting pools
- ›Any public performance data, social media presence, or media coverage that establishes relative contestant positioning
What moved the line
- Jun 18Season 1?: Paulette Tejada↑35pp43→78¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Season 1?: Paulette Tejada↓34pp92→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Season 1?: Jean-Paul Bourgeois↓25pp37→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Season 1?: Paulette Tejada↑15pp59→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Season 1?: Paulette Tejada↑8pp78→86¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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