Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4160 total restaurant count in Q2 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This reflects a 95% market expectation that Chipotle will operate more than 4,160 restaurants by the end of Q2 2026. The high probability reflects Chipotle's established expansion track record and publicly guided growth targets, which markets have confidence the company will meet or exceed. The main downside risks would be accelerated store closures, unexpected capital constraints, or strategic shifts away from aggressive expansion. The key catalyst is Chipotle's Q2 2026 earnings report, expected in late July 2026, which will provide the actual restaurant count and settle this contract. Market attention to comparable sales growth contracts—currently priced much lower (15¢ for above 4% growth)—suggests investors are more uncertain about sales performance than unit count, indicating expansion may proceed even if same-store sales disappoint.

• ›Chipotle's recent quarterly reports showing consistent net unit growth trajectory and management guidance on store openings
• ›Q2 2026 comparable sales uncertainty, with markets pricing above 4% growth at only 15¢, suggesting expansion may not correlate with strong same-store performance
• ›Capital availability and labor cost pressures, which could constrain or accelerate build-out depending on cost environment and financing conditions
• ›Q2 2026 earnings release (expected late July 2026) will provide definitive restaurant count and resolve the contract
• ›Historical gap between unit growth and sales growth in recent quarters, indicating the market views these as partially independent outcomes

What moved the line

• Aug 19Above 4280↑16pp31→47¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 4280↓16pp47→31¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 24Above -1%↑5pp86→91¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 19Above -1%↓3pp85→82¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above -1%↑3pp82→85¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds