Will Costco Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 93

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract measures whether Costco's total monthly foot traffic in August 2026 will exceed 93 million visits. The 51% probability indicates traders slightly favor a result above this threshold, though the outcome remains uncertain. Costco's traffic typically reflects consumer spending patterns, economic confidence, and seasonal retail activity. August represents a back-to-school and late-summer shopping period, which historically drives warehouse traffic. The resolution will depend on actual foot-traffic data Costco reports, likely in late August or early September when the company releases monthly operational metrics. Economic conditions, gas prices, and employment levels heading into August will influence consumer behavior. The tight clustering of contracts around 93-96 million visits suggests traders view the likely outcome in this narrow band, with the 51%-49% split indicating genuine disagreement about whether August traffic stays below or above the 93 million threshold.

• ›Costco's reported monthly foot traffic for August 2026 must exceed 93 million visits to resolve above
• ›Seasonal patterns show August typically captures back-to-school spending and late-summer warehouse visits
• ›Recent macroeconomic indicators (employment, inflation, consumer confidence) in July-August will directly influence customer visits
• ›Gas prices and discretionary spending power in August affect the frequency and volume of warehouse visits
• ›The contract resolves based on Costco's official reported data, typically released in late August or early September

What moved the line

• Aug 19Above 96↓18pp83→65¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 18Above 96↑12pp71→83¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 19Above 99↓12pp39→27¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 99↑11pp27→38¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 97↓9pp55→46¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds