Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026
Leader sits at 84% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.4% or above
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
4.5% or above
Spread
76pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$207
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.4% or above
KXUST7AD-26JUL13-T4.39
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.5% or above
KXUST7AD-26JUL13-T4.49
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.6% or above
KXUST7AD-26JUL13-T4.59
Analysis
The 7Y Treasury yield is priced to stay above 4.24% through July 13, 2026, with traders assigning 97% probability to this outcome. This reflects expectations about near-term interest rate levels, which depend primarily on Federal Reserve policy signals and inflation data. The yield could move lower if incoming economic data weakens demand for credit or if Fed officials signal dovish pivot; it could move higher if inflation remains sticky or growth surprises to the upside. The main catalyst for resolution is the CPI release scheduled for mid-July, which typically influences rate expectations. Traders show high confidence in the 4.24% floor but much lower conviction above 4.34%, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about how far yields might climb. Volume concentration in the tightest contracts indicates active two-way pricing on the exact level rather than a consensus certainty.
- ›The 97% probability on the 4.25%+ contract is supported by $489 in 24-hour volume, indicating genuine market participation rather than thin liquidity.
- ›Probability drops sharply to 60% at 4.39% and near zero at 4.44%, showing traders expect yields in a narrow band rather than a decisive break higher.
- ›The CPI data release mid-July will be the primary driver of movement in 7-year Treasury yields in the two days before settlement.
- ›Current 7Y yield level relative to Fed funds expectations and the term premium will determine whether a 4.24% floor holds or breaks.
- ›The gap between 97% confidence at 4.25% and 90% at 4.29% suggests only modest expected movement in a two-day window.
What moved the line
- Jul 124.4% or above↑35pp39→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 124.6% or above↓9pp12→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 124.5% or above↓7pp12→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 114.4% or above↑5pp34→39¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 13, 2026last 90% · 0d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 0d
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026last 97% · 0d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 92% · 0d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 53% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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