Will U.S. private data center construction spending for July 2026 be above $72.5B

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that U.S. private data center construction spending exceeded $72.5 billion in July 2026. The market shows high confidence that spending was above $65 billion (94%), but much lower confidence at the $72.5 billion threshold (21%), suggesting uncertainty about whether July saw particularly elevated spending. Data center construction has grown substantially due to AI infrastructure demand, but month-to-month variation and the timing of large project phases affect individual monthly figures. The Census Bureau's official Construction Spending report for July 2026, typically released in early September, will provide the definitive figure and resolve this contract. Traders are pricing in a baseline expectation of mid-to-high $60 billion range with declining probability at each higher threshold.

• ›The $65-$72.5B range represents a $7.5B spread where market confidence drops sharply (94% to 21%), indicating genuine uncertainty about July's actual spending level
• ›Historical monthly data center construction spending volatility and project timing cycles affect whether a given month falls in the upper or lower half of quarterly averages
• ›Recent AI infrastructure investment trends and major hyperscaler announcements in June-July 2026 would directly influence whether July spending clustered at higher thresholds
• ›The Census Bureau's preliminary Construction Spending release for July is the binding data source that will definitively resolve all contracts in this series
• ›Seasonal adjustment factors applied by the Census Bureau to raw construction data can shift reported figures and affect which contracts resolve favorably

What moved the line

• Aug 15Above $65.0B↑79pp15→94¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 19Above $65.0B↓57pp91→34¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 19Above $70.0B↓22pp46→24¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above $65.0B↑21pp34→55¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 15Above $70.0B↑20pp31→51¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds