Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -11%
Leader sits at 91% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -11%
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
Above -15%
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 7, 2026
12 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above
Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -7%?: Above -7%
KXDRPEPPERPOS-26SEP07-T-7
Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -11%?: Above -11%
KXDRPEPPERPOS-26SEP07-T-11
Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -15%?: Above -15%
KXDRPEPPERPOS-26SEP07-T-15
Analysis
This question asks whether Dr. Pepper's point-of-sale growth in August 2026 will exceed a decline of 11 percent. The 7% probability indicates market participants view this outcome as unlikely, suggesting most expect steeper negative growth or stability closer to -15% or -3% decline. Dr. Pepper's POS performance reflects broader consumer demand, retail inventory decisions, and competitive pressures in the carbonated soft drink category. The current price cluster—with contracts at 48¢ (above -11%), 46¢ (above -7%), and 21¢ (above -3%)—suggests a median expectation around -7% to -11% decline for the month. Resolution depends on actual August sales data release, typically available within 2-3 weeks after month-end. Key drivers include summer promotional activity, competitor pricing, and consumer spending patterns during the period.
- ›August 2026 POS data release timing and the specific growth rate reported versus the -11% threshold
- ›Competitive promotional intensity from other soft drink brands during summer peak season
- ›Consumer spending trends and retail demand signals in carbonated beverages during the measurement period
- ›Inventory restocking or depletion decisions by major retailers that affect reported POS transactions
- ›Comparison to Dr. Pepper's historical August performance and year-over-year growth rates
What moved the line
- Aug 21Above -11%↑47pp35→82¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above -11%↓45pp90→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above -7%↓44pp78→34¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Above -7%↑44pp7→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above -7%↓18pp37→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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