SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·3 source contracts·Kalshi 3·refreshed just now·Closes Sep 7, 2026 · 12d

Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -11%

Leader sits at 91% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

91%

Above -11%

runner-up 79¢leader 91¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

79¢

Above -15%

Spread

12pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Sep 7, 2026

12 days

Venue

Kalshi

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAbove -11%: 91% (11 days, 10 points)Above -11%: 91% on 2026-08-25Above -15%: 79% (11 days, 10 points)Above -15%: 79% on 2026-08-25Above -7%: 50% (11 days, 11 points)Above -7%: 50% on 2026-08-25
Above -11%91¢Above -15%79¢Above -7%50¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 11d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This question asks whether Dr. Pepper's point-of-sale growth in August 2026 will exceed a decline of 11 percent. The 7% probability indicates market participants view this outcome as unlikely, suggesting most expect steeper negative growth or stability closer to -15% or -3% decline. Dr. Pepper's POS performance reflects broader consumer demand, retail inventory decisions, and competitive pressures in the carbonated soft drink category. The current price cluster—with contracts at 48¢ (above -11%), 46¢ (above -7%), and 21¢ (above -3%)—suggests a median expectation around -7% to -11% decline for the month. Resolution depends on actual August sales data release, typically available within 2-3 weeks after month-end. Key drivers include summer promotional activity, competitor pricing, and consumer spending patterns during the period.

  • August 2026 POS data release timing and the specific growth rate reported versus the -11% threshold
  • Competitive promotional intensity from other soft drink brands during summer peak season
  • Consumer spending trends and retail demand signals in carbonated beverages during the measurement period
  • Inventory restocking or depletion decisions by major retailers that affect reported POS transactions
  • Comparison to Dr. Pepper's historical August performance and year-over-year growth rates

What moved the line

  • Aug 21Above -11%47pp3582¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 19Above -11%45pp9045¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 19Above -7%44pp7834¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 24Above -7%44pp751¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 22Above -7%18pp3719¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.