SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 11, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all answer·5 source contracts·Kalshi 5·closed just now·16pp · 45h

What will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. say during their next earnings call

Leader sits at 73% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

73%

Tariff

runner-up 42¢leader 73¢

Outcomes

5

winner-take-all

Runner-up

42¢

Headwind

Spread

31pp

contested

24h volume

$15K

liquid

Closes

not derived

Venue

Kalshi

5 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayTariff: 83% (2 days, 2 points)Tariff: 83% on 2026-06-09Headwind: 74% (2 days, 2 points)Headwind: 74% on 2026-06-09Meals for Two: 35% (2 days, 2 points)Meals for Two: 35% on 2026-06-09
Tariff83¢Headwind74¢Meals for Two35¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability reflects market estimates of which topic Cracker Barrel will emphasize during its next earnings call. The leading contract at 89% suggests traders expect the company to discuss a specific operational or financial metric, with alternative outcomes like menu items (Meals for Two, Catfish) and business challenges (Headwind) at notably lower prices. The probability could shift based on recent company performance, seasonal results, or announced strategic changes that might warrant discussion. Earnings calls typically highlight operational metrics, comparable sales, cost pressures, and forward guidance. The resolution depends on what management actually says during the call itself, making this sensitive to real-time business developments and management priorities.

  • The leading outcome at 89% implies relatively high confidence in a particular earnings topic, compared to alternatives ranging from 4¢ to 73¢, suggesting focused market expectation rather than dispersed uncertainty
  • Volume concentration in the top contracts ($672k for AI/Artificial Intelligence, $330k for Meals for Two) indicates active trading on specific outcomes, reflecting traders' differentiated views on company priorities
  • Cracker Barrel's seasonal business patterns and recent quarterly performance will drive what management chooses to emphasize, including comparable store sales, menu evolution, or operational challenges
  • The resolution date depends on Cracker Barrel's actual next earnings call date, which typically occurs within weeks of quarter-end and could be imminent given the current trading activity
  • The gap between the leader (89%) and runner-up (84%) is relatively narrow, suggesting material uncertainty remains despite the high headline probability for the leading outcome

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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