What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call
Leader sits at 87% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 77%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Indium Phosphide
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
77¢
Nvidia
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
146 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Indium Phosphide
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-INDI
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Multi-Rail
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-MULT
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Apple
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-APPL
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: American Manufacturing
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-AMER
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Thermal Management
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-THMA
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Liquid Crystal
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-LIQI
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: China / Chinese
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-CHIN
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Optical Circuit Switch
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-OPTI
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Zurich
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-ZURI
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Nvidia
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-NVID
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: CHIPS Act
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-CHIP
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Thermadite
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-THER
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Sherman
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-SHER
What will Coherent Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Silicon Photonics
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCOHR-26AUG12-SILI
Analysis
Market participants are pricing an 78% probability that Coherent Corp. will mention indium phosphide during their next earnings call, based on aggregated predictions across 14 contracts. This reflects expectations about which semiconductor materials or technologies the company will emphasize to investors. The probability is driven primarily by Coherent's historical focus on advanced semiconductor materials and their strategic importance to the company's business, particularly for applications in high-speed communications and power semiconductors. Uncertainty hinges on which product lines or market segments management chooses to highlight, which depends on recent business performance, supply chain conditions, and competitive positioning. The resolution will occur when Coherent holds their next scheduled earnings call, where the company's actual discussion of indium phosphide can be verified against the transcript. The runner-up outcome at 71% suggests material disagreement about what constitutes the primary message.
- ›Coherent's recent quarterly financial results and which product segments showed strongest growth or margin performance
- ›Industry trends in indium phosphide demand for 5G, optical, and power applications relative to competing materials
- ›Competitive announcements or market share shifts that would influence what management prioritizes discussing
- ›Coherent's strategic guidance and whether they emphasize materials science versus specific end-market applications
- ›Scheduled earnings call date and whether any major company developments or partnerships occurred since the last earnings period
What moved the line
- Aug 6Nvidia↑57pp3→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Indium Phosphide↑51pp25→76¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Sherman↑46pp3→49¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Multi-Rail↑45pp3→48¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Silicon Photonics↑45pp3→48¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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