What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call
Leader sits at 84% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 83%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ottava
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
83¢
Procedure
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$557
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
172 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Nipocalimab / Lupus
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-NIPO
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: AI / Artificial Intelligence
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-AI
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: China
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-CHIN
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Europe
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-EURO
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Darzalex Faspro
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-DARZ
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Procedure
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-PROC
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Ottava
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-OTTA
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Litigation
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-LITI
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Administration
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-ADMI
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Tariff
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-TARI
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Vaccine
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-VACC
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Trufill
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-TRUF
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Rybrevant
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-RYBR
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Halda Therapeutics
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-HALD
What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Gene Therapy
KXEARNINGSMENTIONJNJ-26JUL15-GENE
Analysis
This market predicts that Johnson & Johnson will mention Ottava during their next earnings call, with a leading probability of 84%. The high confidence reflects Ottava's recent acquisition and clinical significance to J&J's portfolio, as this is a natural topic for management to discuss with investors. The probability could shift based on the timing of the earnings call relative to Ottava developments, competitive announcements, or changes in J&J's communication strategy. The next scheduled earnings call will definitively resolve this outcome by either including or excluding Ottava discussion. Movements would likely follow clinical trial updates, regulatory decisions affecting Ottava, or shifts in management's prioritization of this asset relative to other pipeline programs like Darzalex Faspro or Halda Therapeutics.
- ›J&J's recent acquisition of Ottava and its strategic importance to the company's robotics and surgical platforms
- ›Historical pattern of J&J mentioning major recent acquisitions and pipeline assets during earnings calls to investors
- ›Trading volume concentration on Ottava contract ($300 24h volume) versus Vaccine, Darzalex Faspro, and AI contracts, indicating market confidence in this outcome
- ›Timing of next earnings call relative to any Ottava clinical, regulatory, or commercial milestones
- ›Management's typical communication frequency regarding surgical innovation and robotics segments during investor presentations
What moved the line
- Jul 9China↓33pp72→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6Procedure↑31pp28→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Tariff↑27pp29→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Nipocalimab / Lupus↓17pp47→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Procedure↓15pp60→45¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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