SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·16 source contracts·Kalshi 16·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2026 · 144d

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call

Leader sits at 76% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 74%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

76%

Delinquency

runner-up 74¢leader 76¢

Outcomes

16

winner-take-all

Runner-up

74¢

Credit Quality

Spread

2pp

contested

24h volume

$1K

modest

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

144 days

Venue

Kalshi

16 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayDelinquency: 69% (15 days, 14 points)Delinquency: 69% on 2026-08-08Credit Quality: 63% (15 days, 14 points)Credit Quality: 63% on 2026-08-08Apple Pay: 62% (15 days, 14 points)Apple Pay: 62% on 2026-08-08
Delinquency69¢Credit Quality63¢Apple Pay62¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 15d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call

16 contracts$1K
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: JP Morgan Payment

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-JP

36¢+6pp$587K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Gemini

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-GEMI

55¢1pp$200K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: PriceRunner

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-PRIC

44¢9pp$159K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Walmart

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-WALM

45¢+6pp$92K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Apple Pay

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-APPL

67¢4pp$7K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: AI / Artificial Intelligence

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-AI

67¢+1pp$2K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Profitability

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-PROF

61¢+5pp$2K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Tailwind

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-TAIL

36¢±0$0K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Sweden

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-SWED

36¢12pp$0K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Southwest Airlines

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-SOUT

21¢8pp$0K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Inflation

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-INFL

26¢+3pp$0K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Headcount

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-HEADC

21¢6pp$0K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Headwind

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-HEAD

21¢±0$0K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Delinquency

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-DELI

76¢+1pp$0K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Credit Quality

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-CRED

74¢+6pp$0K

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Banking License

KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-BANK

60¢+13pp$0K

Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Klarna Group plc will emphasize artificial intelligence and automation during their next earnings call. Currently priced at 45%, this reflects competitive positioning with profitability concerns (43%) and inflation discussions (37%) as significant alternatives. The high weighting toward AI likely reflects broader industry trends where fintech companies increasingly highlight AI capabilities to investors, given Klarna's previous public statements about AI-driven underwriting and customer experience improvements. The probability would rise if Klarna's recent AI deployments show measurable impact on loan performance or operational efficiency. It would fall if upcoming quarterly results highlight profitability challenges, credit quality issues, or macroeconomic headwinds that dominate management commentary. The primary catalyst for resolution is Klarna's next scheduled earnings call, when management will determine which topics receive emphasis in prepared remarks and investor Q&A.

  • Klarna's track record discussing AI in previous earnings calls and investor presentations
  • Current state of credit metrics and delinquency rates that might shift focus toward profitability or credit risk discussion
  • Competitive landscape dynamics in buy-now-pay-later lending and whether AI differentiation remains a primary narrative
  • Timing of any major AI product launches or operational changes Klarna has announced since last earnings
  • Macroeconomic conditions and inflation environment that could force management to prioritize different topics

What moved the line

  • Aug 4Delinquency46pp8034¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 2Gemini44pp484¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 6Profitability35pp1853¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 7Sweden25pp1136¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 3Credit Quality24pp4569¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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