What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call
Leader sits at 76% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 74%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Delinquency
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
74¢
Credit Quality
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
144 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: JP Morgan Payment
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-JP
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Gemini
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-GEMI
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: PriceRunner
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-PRIC
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Walmart
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-WALM
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Apple Pay
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-APPL
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: AI / Artificial Intelligence
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-AI
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Profitability
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-PROF
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Tailwind
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-TAIL
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Sweden
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-SWED
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Southwest Airlines
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-SOUT
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Inflation
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-INFL
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Headcount
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-HEADC
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Headwind
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-HEAD
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Delinquency
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-DELI
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Credit Quality
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-CRED
What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?: Banking License
KXEARNINGSMENTIONKLAR-26AUG18-BANK
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Klarna Group plc will emphasize artificial intelligence and automation during their next earnings call. Currently priced at 45%, this reflects competitive positioning with profitability concerns (43%) and inflation discussions (37%) as significant alternatives. The high weighting toward AI likely reflects broader industry trends where fintech companies increasingly highlight AI capabilities to investors, given Klarna's previous public statements about AI-driven underwriting and customer experience improvements. The probability would rise if Klarna's recent AI deployments show measurable impact on loan performance or operational efficiency. It would fall if upcoming quarterly results highlight profitability challenges, credit quality issues, or macroeconomic headwinds that dominate management commentary. The primary catalyst for resolution is Klarna's next scheduled earnings call, when management will determine which topics receive emphasis in prepared remarks and investor Q&A.
- ›Klarna's track record discussing AI in previous earnings calls and investor presentations
- ›Current state of credit metrics and delinquency rates that might shift focus toward profitability or credit risk discussion
- ›Competitive landscape dynamics in buy-now-pay-later lending and whether AI differentiation remains a primary narrative
- ›Timing of any major AI product launches or operational changes Klarna has announced since last earnings
- ›Macroeconomic conditions and inflation environment that could force management to prioritize different topics
What moved the line
- Aug 4Delinquency↓46pp80→34¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Gemini↓44pp48→4¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Profitability↑35pp18→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Sweden↑25pp11→36¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Credit Quality↑24pp45→69¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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