Will eBay Inc. report Above $22.5 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026
Leader sits at 91% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $21 billion
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Above $21.5 billion
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$239
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 28, 2026
65 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will eBay Inc. report Above $2
Will eBay Inc. report Above $22 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?: Above $22 billion
KXEBAY-26JULGMV-22000000000.0
Will eBay Inc. report Above $22.5 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?: Above $22.5 billion
KXEBAY-26JULGMV-22500000000.0
Will eBay Inc. report Above $21.5 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?: Above $21.5 billion
KXEBAY-26JULGMV-21500000000.0
Will eBay Inc. report Above $21 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?: Above $21 billion
KXEBAY-26JULGMV-21000000000.0
Analysis
Markets estimate a 51% chance that eBay's Q2 2026 gross merchandise volume (GMV) will exceed $22.5 billion, based on aggregated contract prices showing declining confidence at higher thresholds. The 93% probability at the $21 billion level versus 51% at $22.5 billion suggests traders view baseline volume around $21–22 billion as highly likely, but meaningful growth beyond that as uncertain. Resolution depends on eBay's actual Q2 2026 GMV reported in their earnings release, typically published in late July or early August. Key factors include eBay's historical quarter-over-quarter GMV trends, macroeconomic conditions affecting e-commerce spending, competitive pressures from other platforms, and any material changes in seller participation or marketplace dynamics. The wide gap between the $21 billion floor and $23 billion ceiling reflects genuine uncertainty about whether eBay can sustain or exceed recent performance levels during the critical spring-summer selling season.
- ›eBay's Q1 2026 reported GMV and year-over-year growth rate will anchor expectations for Q2 performance
- ›Macroeconomic consumer spending data and e-commerce sector trends through May-June 2026 affect total marketplace transaction volumes
- ›Competitive market share dynamics with Amazon, Etsy, and other platforms influence seller activity and buyer participation on eBay's platform
- ›The specific GMV definition and calculation methodology used in eBay's official earnings report must match the contract specifications exactly
- ›Historical seasonality patterns show whether Q2 typically underperforms or outperforms annual averages for eBay's merchandise volume
What moved the line
- Jun 20Above $22 billion↑7pp58→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above $22.5 billion↓6pp16→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above $22 billion↑5pp53→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above $22 billion↓5pp66→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above $22.5 billion↓5pp23→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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