Will Quinta Brunson win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
493 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jean Smart win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Jean Smart win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Jean Smart
KXEMMYCACTR-26SEP14-JEA
Cluster 2
Will Lisa Kudrow win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Lisa Kudrow win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Lisa Kudrow
KXEMMYCACTR-26SEP14-LISA
Cluster 3
Will Quinta Brunson win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Quinta Brunson win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Quinta Brunson
KXEMMYCACTR-26SEP14-QUI
Cluster 4
Will Kristen Bell win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Kristen Bell win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Kristen Bell
KXEMMYCACTR-26SEP14-KRI
Cluster 5
Will Elle Fanning win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Elle Fanning win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Elle Fanning
KXEMMYCACTR-26SEP14-ELL
Cluster 6
Will Tie win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Tie win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMYCACTR-26SEP14-TIE
Analysis
This represents the market's current estimate that Quinta Brunson will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony. At 17%, the prediction reflects moderate uncertainty about her chances compared to other potential nominees and winners in this category. The probability is influenced by her recent performance history and critical reception in her roles, as well as the broader competitive field of actresses who may receive nominations. The Emmy Awards ceremony in September 2026 will be the decisive event that resolves this question, with the official nomination announcements occurring earlier in the summer serving as an important intermediate indicator of her actual nomination status and competitive positioning.
- ›Quinta Brunson's nomination status and category placement in the official 2026 Emmy nominations (announced summer 2026)
- ›Comparative strength of competing actresses nominated in the same category and their respective campaign visibility
- ›Her eligibility based on episode air dates and production requirements for the 2025-2026 television season
- ›Critical reception and award precedent for her specific role or project in the eligible period
- ›Historical voting patterns in the Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series category
What moved the line
- May 6Lisa Kudrow↑9pp11→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Jean Smart↑4pp59→63¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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