Will Quinta Brunson win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$48
3 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
387 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jean Smart win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Jean Smart win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Jean Smart
KXEMMYCACTR-26SEP14-JEA
Cluster 2
Will Quinta Brunson win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Quinta Brunson win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Quinta Brunson
KXEMMYCACTR-26SEP14-QUI
Cluster 3
Will Tie win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Tie win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMYCACTR-26SEP14-TIE
Analysis
This 21% probability indicates the estimated chance that Quinta Brunson wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 ceremony. Her relatively modest odds reflect a competitive field in this category. The probability is shaped by factors including recent Emmy voting patterns, critical recognition of her performance in Abbott Elementary, and competition from other strong contenders—particularly Jean Smart, who currently shows 85¢ implied probability. The resolution date approaches in late August or early September 2026 when Emmy voters submit their ballots and results are announced. Brunson's odds could shift based on any awards momentum from earlier ceremonies, changes in the shows' critical reception, or updates to industry predictions closer to voting.
- ›Jean Smart at 85¢ represents the market's clear frontrunner, leaving 15¢ combined for all other candidates including Brunson's 21¢
- ›Brunson's Abbott Elementary has maintained consistent recognition patterns in past Emmy cycles; historical voting data would indicate whether her share of nominations translates to higher win probability
- ›Lisa Kudrow at 7¢ shows modest market interest despite her established Emmy history, suggesting recency of performance may weigh heavily in voter decisions
- ›The 24-hour volume concentration ($312 in the Kudrow contract versus under $50 in most others) indicates limited recent betting activity on Brunson specifically
- ›Brunson's probability movements would correlate with critical reviews or nominations from other major awards ceremonies earlier in the season
What moved the line
- Aug 17Quinta Brunson↑3pp1→4¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Quinta Brunson↓3pp4→1¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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