Will Shrinking win Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$390
3 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
388 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Widow's Bay win Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards
Will Widow's Bay win Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards?: Widow's Bay
KXEMMYCSERIES-26SEP14-WID
Cluster 2
will hacks win comedy series at the emmy awards
Will Hacks win Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards?: Hacks
KXEMMYCSERIES-26SEP14-HAC
Cluster 3
will margo's got money troubles win comedy series at the emmy awards
Analysis
This market reflects bettors' assessment that Shrinking has a 19% chance of winning the Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy Award. Shrinking, a therapy comedy starring Jason Segel, faces significant competition from frontrunners like Widow's Bay (56% probability) and Hacks (41% probability). The show's Emmy prospects depend on both critical reception and the preferences of Academy voters, who weight artistic merit and cultural impact. The 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony will definitively resolve this question, making viewer voting patterns and guild member sentiment the primary factors determining whether Shrinking receives the award. Historical Emmy outcomes show comedy categories remain competitive, with voters sometimes favoring established shows over newer entries, though strong performances can shift expectations closer to the ceremony date.
- ›Widow's Bay commands 56% implied probability, more than triple Shrinking's 19%, indicating market consensus favors other shows
- ›Shrinking holds only 19% despite being a major network show with established cast, suggesting doubts about its Emmy appeal relative to competitors
- ›Hacks at 41% probability splits the remaining probability mass with Widow's Bay, leaving limited room for Shrinking to improve without major shifts
- ›Trading volume on Shrinking contract ($0 24h volume) versus Widow's Bay ($1538 24h volume) indicates lower market interest and potential illiquidity for this outcome
- ›The Emmy Awards voting occurs at a fixed future date with defined eligibility criteria, meaning show performance and critical consensus through that date will determine the outcome
What moved the line
- Aug 20Hacks↓7pp42→35¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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