Will Shrinking win Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$50
7 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
493 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will shrinking win comedy series at the emmy awards
Will Shrinking win Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards?: Shrinking
KXEMMYCSERIES-26SEP14-SHR
Cluster 2
will hacks win comedy series at the emmy awards
Will Hacks win Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards?: Hacks
KXEMMYCSERIES-26SEP14-HAC
Cluster 3
will only murders in the building win comedy series at the emmy awards
Cluster 4
will the comeback win comedy series at the emmy awards
Will The Comeback win Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards?: The Comeback
KXEMMYCSERIES-26SEP14-COM
Cluster 5
will nobody wants this win comedy series at the emmy awards
Will Nobody Wants This win Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards?: Nobody Wants This
KXEMMYCSERIES-26SEP14-NOB
Cluster 6
will margo's got money troubles win comedy series at the emmy awards
Cluster 7
will tie win comedy series at the emmy awards
Will Tie win Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMYCSERIES-26SEP14-TIE
Analysis
The current 13% probability reflects traders' assessment that "Shrinking" is unlikely to win the Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy in 2026, despite its acclaim. The show faces competition from established comedy programs and newer entries that may have broader voter appeal. Key factors driving this low probability include "Shrinking's" relatively recent emergence as a comedic force compared to long-running competitors, potential voter fatigue if the show has already won major awards this season, and the Emmy Awards' historical tendency to distribute awards across multiple shows rather than concentrate wins. The probability will crystallize when Emmy nominations are announced, typically in July, which will clarify the competitive field and provide clarity on whether "Shrinking" earned a nomination. The final outcome resolves at the Emmy Awards ceremony in September 2026.
- ›Emmy voters' demonstrated preference for alternating awards across multiple comedy series rather than repeat winners in the same category
- ›Competition from established comedy franchises with larger viewing audiences and longer track records of Emmy success
- ›Timing of "Shrinking's" eligibility period and whether the show released sufficient new content in the qualifying window to maintain voter momentum
- ›Historical correlation between Golden Globe, Critics' Choice, and other precursor awards and Emmy comedy outcomes
- ›Current viewership and cultural relevance metrics relative to competing shows in the comedy category
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.