Will Richard Gadd win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$82
10 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
446 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Matthew Rhys win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Matthew Rhys win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Matthew Rhys
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTO-26SEP14-MAT
Cluster 2
Will Oscar Isaac win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Oscar Isaac win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Oscar Isaac
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTO-26SEP14-OSC
Cluster 3
Will Charlie Hunnam win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Charlie Hunnam win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Charlie Hunnam
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTO-26SEP14-CHA
Cluster 4
Will Cillian Murphy win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Cillian Murphy win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Cillian Murphy
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTO-26SEP14-CIL
Cluster 5
Will Jamie Bell win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Jamie Bell win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Jamie Bell
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTO-26SEP14-JAM
Cluster 6
Will Jason Bateman win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Jason Bateman win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Jason Bateman
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTO-26SEP14-JAS
Cluster 7
Will Michael Shannon win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Michael Shannon win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Michael Shannon
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTO-26SEP14-MIC
Cluster 8
Will Paul Anthony Kelly win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Paul Anthony Kelly win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Paul Anthony Kelly
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTO-26SEP14-PAU
Cluster 9
Will Richard Gadd win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Richard Gadd win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Richard Gadd
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTO-26SEP14-RIC
Cluster 10
Will Tie win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Tie win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTO-26SEP14-TIE
Analysis
This represents a 26% chance that Richard Gadd wins the Outstanding Short Form Comedy or Drama Series acting category at the 2026 Emmy Awards. The probability reflects Gadd's modest track record in major awards competitions, offset by his recent high-profile work on "Baby Reindeer." The current level suggests market participants view him as a viable but not favored contender. The main uncertainties are whether "Baby Reindeer" maintains cultural momentum through Emmy voting season and how competitive the field becomes as networks submit their strongest performers. The Emmy nominations will be announced in July 2026, which will clarify whether Gadd receives a nomination and reveal his competition. Resolution occurs at the Emmy Awards ceremony, scheduled for September 2026.
- ›Gadd's "Baby Reindeer" was a Netflix global success in 2024, but momentum for year-old content may have faded by Emmy voting in mid-2026
- ›The Outstanding Limited Series Actor category historically favors established award-circuit participants with multiple major nominations
- ›Emmy voters typically submit nominees by May-June 2026, providing the first concrete signal of whether Gadd advances beyond speculation
- ›No prior Emmy, Golden Globe, or SAG Award nominations visible in Gadd's history, suggesting limited name recognition among voters
- ›The 26% probability places him below established contenders (Noah Wyle at 76%) but above marginal candidates, indicating genuine consideration among market participants
What moved the line
- Jun 18Matthew Rhys↑9pp19→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Richard Gadd↑6pp1→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Oscar Isaac↓4pp31→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Matthew Rhys↑3pp28→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Oscar Isaac↑3pp26→29¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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