Will Richard Gadd win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability estimates a 12% chance that Richard Gadd wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Movie Series. The market assessment reflects several competing actors in the category, with Matthew Rhys currently the market favorite at 47%, followed by Oscar Isaac at 23%. Gadd's relatively lower probability may reflect competition from more established names or fewer visible campaign efforts at this stage. Key factors driving the probability include critical reception and nomination prospects for Gadd's recent work, the strength of competing performances in the eligible period, Emmy voter preferences for different genres and networks, and how industry momentum develops between now and Emmy voting. The Emmy nominations are typically announced in July, which will provide clarity on whether Gadd is even nominated—a critical threshold that would substantially affect this outcome's likelihood.

• ›Emmy nominations announcement (typically July 2026) determines eligibility and eliminates uncertainty for non-nominated actors
• ›Matthew Rhys maintains 3.9x higher market probability than Gadd, suggesting baseline assessment of comparative competitiveness
• ›Oscar Isaac and other major-name competitors command 23 cents despite similar category structure, indicating market weights actor reputation and campaign visibility
• ›Richard Gadd's recent television work reception and critical acclaim relative to competing nominated performances in the eligible window
• ›Total contract volume of $382 in 24-hour trading on top contracts suggests limited liquidity and potentially wide probability ranges across different estimators

What moved the line

• Aug 22Oscar Isaac↑9pp60→69¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 22Matthew Rhys↓4pp17→13¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 22Riz Ahmed↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds