Will Hannes Hanso be the next President of Estonia before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
154 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Maive Rute be the next President of Estonia before Jan 1, 2027
Will Maive Rute be the next President of Estonia before Jan 1, 2027?: Maive Rute
KXESTPRES-27JAN01-MRUT
Cluster 2
Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia before Jan 1, 2027
Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia before Jan 1, 2027?: Ülle Madise
KXESTPRES-27JAN01-UMAD
Cluster 3
Will Hannes Hanso be the next President of Estonia before Jan 1, 2027
Will Hannes Hanso be the next President of Estonia before Jan 1, 2027?: Hannes Hanso
KXESTPRES-27JAN01-HHAN
Analysis
This contract reflects a 24% probability that Hannes Hanso will become Estonia's next president by January 1, 2027—roughly five months away. Hanso's current odds place him third among tracked candidates, behind Ülle Madise at 56% and ahead of Maive Rute at 11%. The probability is driven primarily by the timing constraint: Estonia's presidential election process typically involves parliamentary voting, and the compressed window means any transition must occur through expedited constitutional procedures or an extraordinary political shift. The main factor pushing odds lower is that Madise currently commands majority support in available contracts, suggesting broader consensus favors another candidate. Any major political realignment, parliamentary defections, or unexpected withdrawal by the leading candidate could meaningfully shift Hanso's probability. The key catalyst is the formal initiation of Estonia's presidential selection process and any parliamentary votes that would determine the successor.
- ݆lle Madise holds 56% aggregate probability across markets, more than double Hanso's 24%, indicating significant consensus favoring an alternative candidate
- ›The timeframe ends January 1, 2027, leaving approximately five months for Estonia's presidential succession process to complete
- ›Parliamentary voting mechanisms in Estonia determine presidential selection, meaning legislative coalitions and political realignments are the primary mechanisms for changing outcomes
- ›Zero trading volume in the last 24 hours across all three tracked contracts suggests limited recent market activity or conviction shifts
- ›Hanso's current contract price of 4¢ reflects substantial discount to the leading candidate, indicating market participants assess other candidates as more probable choices
What moved the line
- Aug 6Ülle Madise↑8pp59→67¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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