Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$57K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan
Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?: Abdul El-Sayed
KXSENATEMID-26-AELS
Cluster 2
Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan
Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?: Haley Stevens
KXSENATEMID-26-HSTE
Analysis
This probability estimates a 33% chance that Abdul El-Sayed becomes the Democratic nominee for Michigan's U.S. Senate seat. The market reflects uncertainty about his viability as a candidate, likely influenced by his performance in previous statewide races, name recognition relative to potential competitors, and the Democratic Party's broader strategic priorities in this competitive seat. Key factors affecting this probability include whether other strong candidates enter the race, El-Sayed's ability to fundraise and build organizational support, and how Michigan voters respond to his policy platform in polling. The most significant resolution point would be the official filing deadline for the Senate race and any major primary polling data showing candidate preferences among Democratic voters. As the election cycle develops, actual campaign momentum and endorsements from party leaders will provide clearer signals about his nomination prospects.
- ›El-Sayed's track record in previous statewide races and whether he has expanded his political base since last running
- ›The number and strength of alternative Democratic candidates who declare candidacy for the Michigan Senate nomination
- ›Fundraising totals and organizational capacity El-Sayed demonstrates compared to competing candidates
- ›Current and projected primary polling among Michigan Democratic voters explicitly testing Senate nominee preferences
- ›Endorsements from major Michigan Democratic figures, party officials, and national organizations as the primary approaches
What moved the line
- Jun 24Haley Stevens↓5pp25→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Abdul El-Sayed↑4pp73→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Haley Stevens↓3pp20→17¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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