Will Martell D Bivings be the Republican nominee for MI-13
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
16 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?: Bridget Brink
KXMIPRIMARY-07D26-BBRI
Cluster 2
Will Kyle Blomquist be the Democratic nominee for MI-01
Will Kyle Blomquist be the Democratic nominee for MI-01?: Kyle Blomquist
KXMIPRIMARY-01D26-KBLO
Cluster 3
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic nominee for MI-10
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic nominee for MI-10?: Tim Greimel
KXMIPRIMARY-10D26-TGRE
Cluster 4
Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican nominee for MI-10
Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican nominee for MI-10?: Robert Lulgjuraj
KXMIPRIMARY-10R26-RLUL
Cluster 5
Will TP Nykoriak be the Republican nominee for MI-13
Will TP Nykoriak be the Republican nominee for MI-13?: TP Nykoriak
KXMIPRIMARY-13R26-TNYK
Cluster 6
Will Callie Barr be the Democratic nominee for MI-01
Will Callie Barr be the Democratic nominee for MI-01?: Callie Barr
KXMIPRIMARY-01D26-CBAR
Cluster 7
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?: William Lawrence
KXMIPRIMARY-07D26-WLAW
Cluster 8
Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07
Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?: Matt Maasdam
KXMIPRIMARY-07D26-MMAA
Cluster 9
Will Michael Bouchard be the Republican nominee for MI-10
Will Michael Bouchard be the Republican nominee for MI-10?: Michael Bouchard
KXMIPRIMARY-10R26-MBOU
Cluster 10
Will Jack Bergman be the Republican nominee for MI-01
Will Jack Bergman be the Republican nominee for MI-01?: Jack Bergman
KXMIPRIMARY-01R26-JBER
Cluster 11
Will Ben Ambrose be the Democratic nominee for MI-02
Will Ben Ambrose be the Democratic nominee for MI-02?: Ben Ambrose
KXMIPRIMARY-02D26-BAMB
Cluster 12
Will Clyde Welford be the Democratic nominee for MI-02
Will Clyde Welford be the Democratic nominee for MI-02?: Clyde Welford
KXMIPRIMARY-02D26-CWEL
Cluster 13
Will Jamie Hill be the Democratic nominee for MI-02
Will Jamie Hill be the Democratic nominee for MI-02?: Jamie Hill
KXMIPRIMARY-02D26-JHIL
Cluster 14
Will Ryan Cushman be the Republican nominee for MI-03
Will Ryan Cushman be the Republican nominee for MI-03?: Ryan Cushman
KXMIPRIMARY-03R26-RCUS
Cluster 15
Will Terri DeBoer be the Republican nominee for MI-03
Will Terri DeBoer be the Republican nominee for MI-03?: Terri DeBoer
KXMIPRIMARY-03R26-TDEB
Cluster 16
Will Sean McCann be the Democratic nominee for MI-04
Will Sean McCann be the Democratic nominee for MI-04?: Sean McCann
KXMIPRIMARY-04D26-SMCC
Analysis
This represents the probability that Martell D Bivings will win the Republican nomination contest for Michigan's 13th congressional district. At 28%, the market suggests Bivings is considered a meaningful contender but not the frontrunner. The nomination probability reflects ongoing primary competition dynamics in MI-13, where voter preferences, candidate endorsements, and fundraising performance shape outcomes. The metric would move higher if Bivings gains significant endorsements or demonstrates strong grassroots support through polling or turnout indicators, and would decline if a rival candidate consolidates backing or outpaces fundraising. The primary election itself will be the decisive moment, resolving whether Bivings translates current market positioning into actual nomination victory. Until then, shifts in this probability track changes in candidate viability and expected delegate strength within the Republican primary electorate.
- ›Current market pricing of 28% reflects Bivings as a secondary contender relative to other MI-13 Republican candidates not shown in top contract data
- ›Nomination outcomes depend on primary voting patterns and delegate allocation rules specific to Michigan's Republican process
- ›Fundraising totals, endorsement cascades, and polling momentum in the coming weeks can shift perceived viability and nomination probability substantially
- ›The primary election date for MI-13 will definitively resolve this contract, with all nomination uncertainty collapsing to either 0% or 100% at that point
- ›Trading volume of 20 contracts suggests moderate but not deep market liquidity for this specific nomination race
What moved the line
- Jun 18TP Nykoriak↑9pp58→67¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21TP Nykoriak↑8pp69→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22TP Nykoriak↑8pp77→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Tim Greimel↓7pp16→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Matt Maasdam↓7pp9→2¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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