Will Martell D Bivings be the Republican nominee for MI-13
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 96% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
96%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
454 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ben Ambrose be the Democratic nominee for MI-02
Will Ben Ambrose be the Democratic nominee for MI-02?: Ben Ambrose
KXMIPRIMARY-02D26-BAMB
Analysis
This represents the probability that Martell D Bivings will win the Republican nomination contest for Michigan's 13th congressional district. At 28%, the market suggests Bivings is considered a meaningful contender but not the frontrunner. The nomination probability reflects ongoing primary competition dynamics in MI-13, where voter preferences, candidate endorsements, and fundraising performance shape outcomes. The metric would move higher if Bivings gains significant endorsements or demonstrates strong grassroots support through polling or turnout indicators, and would decline if a rival candidate consolidates backing or outpaces fundraising. The primary election itself will be the decisive moment, resolving whether Bivings translates current market positioning into actual nomination victory. Until then, shifts in this probability track changes in candidate viability and expected delegate strength within the Republican primary electorate.
- ›Current market pricing of 28% reflects Bivings as a secondary contender relative to other MI-13 Republican candidates not shown in top contract data
- ›Nomination outcomes depend on primary voting patterns and delegate allocation rules specific to Michigan's Republican process
- ›Fundraising totals, endorsement cascades, and polling momentum in the coming weeks can shift perceived viability and nomination probability substantially
- ›The primary election date for MI-13 will definitively resolve this contract, with all nomination uncertainty collapsing to either 0% or 100% at that point
- ›Trading volume of 20 contracts suggests moderate but not deep market liquidity for this specific nomination race
What moved the line
- Aug 5Ben Ambrose↑3pp90→93¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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