Will Sarah Preu be the Democratic nominee for KS-03
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 52% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
52%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1
10 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Katy Tyndell be the Democratic nominee for KS-04
Will Katy Tyndell be the Democratic nominee for KS-04?: Katy Tyndell
KXKSPRIMARY-04D26-KTYN
Cluster 2
Will Colin McRoberts be the Democratic nominee for KS-01
Will Colin McRoberts be the Democratic nominee for KS-01?: Colin McRoberts
KXKSPRIMARY-01D26-CMCR
Cluster 3
Will Lauren Reinhold be the Democratic nominee for KS-01
Will Lauren Reinhold be the Democratic nominee for KS-01?: Lauren Reinhold
KXKSPRIMARY-01D26-LREI
Cluster 4
Will Don Coover be the Democratic nominee for KS-02
Will Don Coover be the Democratic nominee for KS-02?: Don Coover
KXKSPRIMARY-02D26-DCOO
Cluster 5
Will Chad Young be the Republican nominee for KS-02
Will Chad Young be the Republican nominee for KS-02?: Chad Young
KXKSPRIMARY-02R26-CYOU
Cluster 6
Will Derek Schmidt be the Republican nominee for KS-02
Will Derek Schmidt be the Republican nominee for KS-02?: Derek Schmidt
KXKSPRIMARY-02R26-DSCH
Cluster 7
Will Chase LaPorte be the Republican nominee for KS-03
Will Chase LaPorte be the Republican nominee for KS-03?: Chase LaPorte
KXKSPRIMARY-03R26-CLAP
Cluster 8
Will Eric Jenkins be the Republican nominee for KS-03
Will Eric Jenkins be the Republican nominee for KS-03?: Eric Jenkins
KXKSPRIMARY-03R26-EJEN
Cluster 9
Will Chris Carmichael be the Democratic nominee for KS-04
Will Chris Carmichael be the Democratic nominee for KS-04?: Chris Carmichael
KXKSPRIMARY-04D26-CCAR
Cluster 10
Will Ron Estes be the Republican nominee for KS-04
Will Ron Estes be the Republican nominee for KS-04?: Ron Estes
KXKSPRIMARY-04R26-REST
Analysis
Sarah Preu is currently assessed at 46% odds to become the Democratic nominee for Kansas's 3rd congressional district. This probability reflects significant uncertainty about the Democratic primary outcome in a competitive race. The current level suggests meaningful backing for Preu but also indicates substantial competition or concerns about her nomination prospects. Primary dynamics typically shift based on candidate fundraising, endorsements, polling data, and field composition changes. The nomination will be resolved on or shortly after the August 2026 primary election date, when Kansas voters cast ballots and determine the Democratic nominee for this House race. Until then, factors including campaign momentum, debate performance, voter outreach effectiveness, and potential candidate entry or withdrawal could materially move this probability.
- ›Sharice Davids, a Democrat incumbent, is priced at 92¢ suggesting she is the presumptive Democratic favorite for KS-03, which directly constrains Preu's probability
- ›The low trading volume ($140 24h) and thin market depth indicate limited liquidity and potentially wide confidence intervals around the 46% assessment
- ›Kansas primary rules, early filing deadlines, and the timing of candidate announcements will determine the final field composition competing for the nomination
- ›Democratic primary voter preferences in KS-03, measurable through polling and early organizing data, will drive the eventual outcome
- ›The August 2026 primary election date represents the resolution point when nominee selection becomes deterministic
What moved the line
- Jun 21Don Coover↑61pp1→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Katy Tyndell↑10pp26→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Chris Carmichael↓9pp68→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Chris Carmichael↓3pp59→56¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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