Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $430,000
Leader sits at 91% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 80%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $415,000
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
80¢
Above $420,000
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $4
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $435,000?: Above $435,000
KXEXUSHOME-26SEP10-T435000
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $450,000?: Above $450,000
KXEXUSHOME-26SEP10-T450000
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $425,000?: Above $425,000
KXEXUSHOME-26SEP10-T425000
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $445,000?: Above $445,000
KXEXUSHOME-26SEP10-T445000
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $440,000?: Above $440,000
KXEXUSHOME-26SEP10-T440000
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $430,000?: Above $430,000
KXEXUSHOME-26SEP10-T430000
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $420,000?: Above $420,000
KXEXUSHOME-26SEP10-T420000
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $455,000?: Above $455,000
KXEXUSHOME-26SEP10-T455000
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $415,000?: Above $415,000
KXEXUSHOME-26SEP10-T415000
Analysis
This probability indicates traders believe there is a 94% chance the median price of existing U.S. homes will exceed $415,000 in July 2026, with declining confidence at higher price points. The assessment reflects recent housing market trends and seasonal patterns in home sales data. Upward pressure comes from persistent inflation, tight housing supply, and demand factors, while downward pressure could emerge from rising interest rates, economic slowdown, or increased housing inventory. The July 2026 median price will be officially released by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system, which publishes this monthly metric. Traders show sharp confidence drop above $440,000 (43% probability), suggesting meaningful uncertainty about sustained price appreciation at higher levels. The narrow 24-hour trading volume on higher-price contracts indicates less active debate on extreme outcomes.
- ›Median existing home price has historically averaged around $400,000-$430,000 range; exceeding $415,000 requires modest appreciation from recent baselines
- ›Mortgage interest rates and lending standards directly influence buyer purchasing power and price support levels
- ›Housing inventory levels and new construction data affect supply-side price pressures through June and into July 2026
- ›Economic indicators released in June-July 2026 (employment, inflation, consumer confidence) will influence buyer demand
- ›Seasonal factors: July is typically mid-year reporting period; any June housing data surprises will inform final price outcomes
What moved the line
- Aug 13Above $420,000↓20pp61→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 12Above $430,000↓19pp49→30¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 13Above $445,000↓13pp20→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 12Above $420,000↓12pp73→61¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 12Above $425,000↓11pp66→55¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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