Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035 be above 5.75%
Leader sits at 92% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1.00%
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Above 1.00%
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2034
2689 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 20
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.00%?: Above 4.00%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T4.00
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.50%?: Above 3.50%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.25%?: Above 4.25%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T4.25
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2029 be above 1.00%?: Above 1.00%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-30JAN01-T1.00
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 4.50%?: Above 4.50%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-29JAN01-T4.50
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 4.25%?: Above 4.25%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-37JAN01-T4.25
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035 be above 2.25%?: Above 2.25%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-36JAN01-T2.25
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035 be above 4.75%?: Above 4.75%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-36JAN01-T4.75
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030 be above 5.50%?: Above 5.50%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-31JAN01-T5.50
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 5.25%?: Above 5.25%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-29JAN01-T5.25
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 5.75%?: Above 5.75%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-37JAN01-T5.75
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031 be above 1.00%?: Above 1.00%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-32JAN01-T1.00
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030 be above 5.75%?: Above 5.75%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-31JAN01-T5.75
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 5.75%?: Above 5.75%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-34JAN01-T5.75
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 5.00%?: Above 5.00%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-29JAN01-T5.00
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 3.50%?: Above 3.50%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-29JAN01-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030 be above 2.50%?: Above 2.50%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-31JAN01-T2.50
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030 be above 5.00%?: Above 5.00%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-31JAN01-T5.00
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2034 be above 5.50%?: Above 5.50%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-35JAN01-T5.50
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.00%?: Above 3.00%
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T3.00
Analysis
This contract asks whether the Federal Reserve's upper bound for its target interest rate will exceed 5.75% by the end of 2035—roughly nine years away. At 67% probability, traders are betting this threshold will be breached, reflecting expectations that rates will remain elevated relative to historical norms or rise again following potential future rate cuts. The near-term path of inflation and labor market conditions will heavily influence this outcome. Related contracts show traders assigning low probabilities to rates staying below 1.50% by 2031 (suggesting rates are expected to rise substantially), but much higher uncertainty about whether they'll exceed 6.00% by 2029. The Fed's actual policy trajectory over the next three years will be the dominant signal; if inflation proves sticky or labor demand remains strong, sustained higher rates become more likely, raising the probability this threshold is met.
- ›Current federal funds rate upper bound is 5.33% as of mid-2026; reaching 5.75% requires an increase of approximately 42 basis points or sustained elevated policy rates
- ›Related Kalshi contracts show only 5% probability of rates exceeding 6.00% by end-2029, suggesting most path-dependent probability mass is in 5.50-5.75% range by 2035
- ›Market pricing of intermediate thresholds (1.50% by 2031, 2.25% by 2032) indicates expectation of multiple rate adjustment cycles over the nine-year window
- ›Inflation persistence, labor market tightness, and geopolitical shocks between now and 2035 will drive Fed policy decisions and determine whether restrictive rates persist
- ›The contract depends on Fed maintaining upper bound above 5.75% specifically on December 31, 2035; temporary excursions or earlier peaks do not resolve the question
What moved the line
- Aug 18Above 2.25%↓24pp58→34¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Above 3.50%↑21pp38→59¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above 1.00%↓21pp79→58¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above 4.25%↑21pp10→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above 3.50%↑21pp24→45¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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