Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Binghamton, New York ends its use of Flock Safety license plate reader cameras before Feb 1, 2027
Leader sits at 71% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 61%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
New Bedford, MA
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
61¢
Richmond, CA
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
132 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Renton, Washington ends its use of Flock Safety license plate reader cameras before Feb 1, 2027?: Renton, WA
KXFLOCKDROPPED-27-RENTON
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Atlanta, Georgia ends its use of Flock Safety license plate reader cameras before Feb 1, 2027?: Atlanta, GA
KXFLOCKDROPPED-27-ATLGA
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that New Bedford,, Massachusetts ends its use of Flock Safety license plate reader cameras before Feb 1, 2027?: New Bedford, MA
KXFLOCKDROPPED-27-NBED
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Boulder, Colorado ends its use of Flock Safety license plate reader cameras before Feb 1, 2027?: Boulder, CO
KXFLOCKDROPPED-27-BCO
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Binghamton, New York ends its use of Flock Safety license plate reader cameras before Feb 1, 2027?: Binghamton, NY
KXFLOCKDROPPED-27-BINGHAM
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Richmond, California ends its use of Flock Safety license plate reader cameras before Feb 1, 2027?: Richmond, CA
KXFLOCKDROPPED-27-RICHCA
Analysis
This contract measures the likelihood that Binghamton, New York will be reported to have discontinued its use of Flock Safety license plate reader cameras before February 1, 2027. The 31% probability reflects modest odds compared to Fort Wayne, Indiana (71%), suggesting markets view Binghamton as less likely to end its camera program in the next five months. The probability would rise if public pressure, litigation, or city council action emerges against surveillance technology, and would fall if the city renews or expands its Flock Safety contract. Resolution depends on official reporting from local or state agencies documenting the end of the program by the deadline. The relatively low trading volume indicates limited market attention to this specific outcome, which could shift if major news breaks regarding municipal surveillance policy changes.
- ›Fort Wayne's higher probability (71%) versus Binghamton's (31%) suggests markets perceive different political or operational momentum between these municipalities
- ›No reported recent votes, lawsuits, or council initiatives specifically targeting Binghamton's Flock Safety use as of August 2026
- ›The deadline of February 1, 2027 is approximately 5.5 months away, creating a near-term constraint on how much policy change can materialize
- ›Surveillance technology adoption and reversal decisions typically correlate with local activism, budget crises, or legal challenges—market pricing may reflect absence of these signals in Binghamton
- ›The zero 24-hour trading volume across all four contracts suggests this is a low-liquidity market with limited new information updating prices since listing
What moved the line
- Sep 18Binghamton, NY↑19pp2→21¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Richmond, CA↑16pp15→31¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Binghamton, NY↓9pp11→2¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Renton, WA↓8pp22→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Richmond, CA↑8pp7→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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