Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before Jul 1, 2027
Leader sits at 17% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2028
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
Before Jul 1, 2027
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$70
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before J
Analysis
This market reflects a 17% probability that Keiko Fujimori will no longer be serving as President of Peru by January 1, 2028. The low probability suggests traders assess her position as relatively stable over the next six months. The main factors shaping this view are Peru's political volatility—including ongoing institutional tensions, regional protests, and criminal investigations affecting multiple political figures—weighed against the difficulty of removing a sitting president through standard mechanisms within this timeframe. Peru's presidential succession rules, congressional composition, and whether new scandals or street pressure destabilize her administration will be critical. The lack of recent trading volume in the mid-2027 contract suggests limited near-term market concern about an exit before July 2027, with more uncertainty priced in for the full year through early 2028.
- ›Peru's current institutional mechanisms for presidential removal (impeachment, resignation, or court action) and their historical frequency
- ›Status and velocity of ongoing criminal investigations or scandals involving Fujimori or her administration
- ›Congressional opposition strength and whether coalitions exist to pursue formal removal procedures
- ›Degree and sustainability of street-level unrest or protests targeting the government
- ›Changes in regional political events or international pressure that could accelerate domestic instability
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (17% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In politics
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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